「中國和平崛起論」源自2003年中共中央黨校前副校長鄧必堅在博鰲亞洲論壇上發表《中國和平崛起新道路和亞洲的未來》,認為在中國改革開放25年來,已經開創出一條適合中國國情又適合時代特徵的戰略道路。2003年後中國與拉丁美洲的關係急速發展,不論是在經貿合作、政治互動,或是文化交流上,雙方今日已達到全面深化合作的局面。 拉丁美洲一直以來被視為美國的後院,自門羅主義宣言起,拉丁美洲似乎就成為他國不可觸碰的禁地,試圖掌控拉美者,就是對美國利益的威脅。隨著中國的崛起與國際體系的變動,中國對拉美地區的政策是越發明確與積極,不免令人省思中國背後所謀圖的政經意圖是什麼。 本文以Bruce Russett等人所提出的六個層次分析方式為基礎,試圖找出和平崛起後的中國對拉丁美洲所謀圖的政經意圖。有別於Waltz 的三個層次分析,六個層次分析探討了個人決策者與他們的特質、決策者所扮演的角色、政府結構、社會、國際關係及世界體系等六個項目。本文將六個層次分析整合為四個層次從中找出影響中國對拉美戰略的制定因素,並以新現實主義和新自由主義的視角來加以探討。
The theory of China’s peaceful rise came from Deng, Bi-Jian who is the ex-vice-president of Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C. He launched a statement with a topic “the New Path of China’s Peaceful Rise and the Future of Asia” in Boao Forum for Asia in 2003. In his statement, he thought that China has already created a strategic path that suits china’s actual conditions and the features of this era during these 25 years since the policy of reform and opening-up. After 2003, the relations between China and Latin American countries are developing rapidly in economy, politics and cultural interchange. Sino-Latin America relations became more and more profound in different aspects today. However, Latin America has been labeled as “America’s backyard” for a long time. Since Monroe’s Doctrine, United States regarded Latin America as a part of America, and considered any threat to Latin America as the threat to America’s national interest. As the rising China and the change of international system, China’s diplomatic policy to Latin America is more active and aggressive. As a result, it tempts the U.S into being suspicious about the significance of China’s diplomatic policy to Latin America. The study tries to investigate China’s diplomatic strategy toward Latin America through the frame of level of analysis. This study uses four levels of analysis (level of world system, level of international relations, social level, and governmental level). The concept of four levels of analysis comes from six levels of analysis which were created by Bruce Russett, Harvey Starr and David Kinsella. As distinct from Kenneth Waltz’s three levels of analysis (individual level, state level, and international level), six levels of analysis, including the characters of policy maker, policy maker’s position in government, structure of government, structure of society, international relations and world system, are better than three levels of analysis. Those levels are more sophisticated to examine the significance of China’s diplomatic strategy toward Latin America from the view of neorealism and neoliberalism perspectives.