台灣地區十大死因聯合部分去除對平均壽命之影響

The Effect of Jointly Partial Elimination of the Ten Leading Causes of Death on Life Expectancy in Taiwan

林正祥(Cheng-Hsiang Lin)

《中華公共衛生雜誌》 14卷2期 (1995/04) Pp. 169-178

https://doi.org/10.6288/CJPH1995-14-02-06

摘要

本研究探討了有關台灣地區十大死因同時聯合去除某特定百分比時對平均壽命之影響，吾等發現若將十犬死因同時完全去除（去除百分比100%），則自出生起男、女性之平均餘命將分別增加16.29年及13.97年而達87.83歲及90.51歲。在0歲，40歲及65歲時十大死因同時被去除10%，20%，…，100%時，平均餘命之獲得和去除百分比呈二次曲線上升：0歲和40歲時男性平均餘命之獲得皆高於女性，在65歲時則女性略高於男性。且在十大死因聯合去除10%，50%或100%時，男、女平均餘命之獲得因年齡之增長而呈二次曲線下降，0~60歲間男性平均餘命之獲得均高於女性，惟60歲以後差異減少，女性甚而較男性為高。此外，由於工作年齡群（15-65歲）對國家經濟發展影響至鉅，故乃針對此一特定年齡群，算出十大死因聯合部分去除對平均餘命影響之迴歸模式，在控制年齡、性別等因素下，求出其十大死因去除不同百分比迴歸係數所佔之百分比(符號略)，此可視為十大死因間競爭性風險對平均餘命之影響程度，其依序為腦血管疾病(21.3%)、惡性腫瘤(20.5%)、心臟病(20%)、意外災害(8.6%)、肺炎(5.8%)、糖尿病(5.8%)、高血壓(5.2%)、支氣管疾病(5.2%)、腎臟病(3.9%)及慢性肝病(3.6%)，此當有助於政府相關部門預防十大死因預算之合理分配。

關鍵字

聯合部分去除 ； 平均壽命 ； 工作年齡群 ； 多因併除生命表

並列摘要

This paper studies the effect of jointly partial elimination of the ten leading causes of death on life expectancy in Taiwan. We find that when all the ten causes of death are simultaneously eliminated, the life expectancy of male and female are incresed by 16.23 years and 13.97 years respectively. At age 0,40 and 65, when the ten causes are simultaneously eliminated at 10%, 20%,…, and 100%, the life expectancy increases almost quadratically. At age 0 and 40 the gain in life expectncy of male is greater than that of female, but at age 65 the gain of female is greater than that of male; also at the eliminating rates of 10%, 50% and 100% the gain in life expectancy of male is greater than that of female between age 0 and age 60 while the gain of life expectancy of female might be greater than that of male after age 60. In addition, we investigate the gain of years of working age group. Through adjustments of age and sex, we contruct a regression function of the gain of life expectancy on the percentage of jointly partial elimination of the ten causes. By using the partial regression coefficients (β's), we can figure out each corresponding percentage (the symbol is abbreviated) of the ten leading causes of death. This can be regarded as the effect of competing risks among the ten leading causes of death on life expectancy. The higher the corresponding percentage, the more impact of the cause of death on the life expectancy. By controlling age and sex the order of corresponding percentage of regression coefficients of the ten leading causes of death are Cerebrovascular disease (21.3%), Malignant neoplasm (20.5%), Heart disease (20%), Accident (8.6%), Pneumonia (5.8%), Diabetes (5.8%), Hypertension (5.2%), Bronchitis (5.2%), Nephritis (3.9%) and Chronic Liver Disease (3.6%). This shows the relative effect on life expectancy among the ten leading causes of death at working age group. Based on the cost-benefit standpoint, this result would help allocating the budget for setting an effective preventive programs of the government.

並列關鍵字

jointly partial elimination ； life expectancy ； working age group ； multiple-decrement life table