土石流潛勢地區地方政府及民眾之疏散決策因子

The Factors of Evacuation Decisions for Local Governments and Inhabitants in Debris-Flow Potential Areas

陳振宇(Chen-Yu Chen)

《中華水土保持學報》 44卷2期 (2013/06) Pp. 165-178

https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.201306_44(2).0007

摘要

受限於現行災害警戒系統精度不高、時間壓力以及諸多不確定因素，如何適時疏散土石流潛勢地區民眾，降低傷亡風險，已成為地方政府颱風豪雨期間經常面對的決策難題。本文以AHP問卷調查及成對比較方式，清楚呈現不同層級、不同區域之地方政府及民眾在疏散決策之差異，同時亦初步建立各級地方政府與民眾之土石流疏散避難決策模型，除可作為調整防災策略之重要參據外，後續亦可提供改進警戒系統及發展疏散決策支援系統之基礎資料。

關鍵字

疏散避難 ； 決策 ； 地方政府 ； 土石流

並列摘要

Owing to the limitations of disaster warning accuracy, time constrains and many uncertainties, deciding how to evacuate the inhabitants living in debris-flow potential areas in timely manner and reduce the risk of casualties has become a difficult decision for local governments during typhoons or heavy rainfall. Based on pair-wise comparison and the analytic hierarchy process, this study showed the significant difference between evacuation decisions for local governments at different levels and locations, and established preliminarily evacuation decision-making models. The findings also indicated that using only single disaster warning system is not enough to assist local governments in making evacuation decisions, and establishing a evacuation decision support system should be one of the priorities in future disaster prevention actions. The results of this study not only provide a strategy for strengthening disaster prevention but also offer a foundation for refining existing disaster warning systems and developing an evacuation decision support system.

並列關鍵字

Evacuation ； decision making ； local government ； debris flow ； AHP