Title

南投縣仁愛鄉崩塌特性分析及崩塌風險模式建構

Translated Titles

Analysis of the Landslide Characteristic and Building the Landslide Risk Model for Renai Township, Nantou

DOI

10.29417/JCSWC.201809_49(3).0003

Authors

吳俊鋐(Chun-Hung Wu);黃均臺(Jun-Tai Hunag);吳亭燁(Tingyeh Wu)

Key Words

崩塌特性 ; 崩塌潛勢模式 ; 崩塌風險模式 ; 崩塌重現機率 ; Landslide characteristic ; landslide susceptibility model ; landslide risk model ; landslide recurrence probability

PublicationName

中華水土保持學報

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

49卷3期(2018 / 09 / 01)

Page #

154 - 166

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

本研究以南投縣仁愛鄉在2009年莫拉克颱風後崩塌目錄,建構仁愛鄉內之崩塌潛勢評估模式及風險模式。仁愛鄉在2009年莫拉克颱風後之崩塌案例,有57.0%位於下邊坡及20.5%位於上邊坡,且崩塌規模以小規模崩塌為主。崩塌潛勢評估模式建構分別以邏輯式迴歸法及證據權重法進行,兩種方法之正確率分別為74.47%及61.92%,因此選定邏輯式迴歸法建構之崩塌潛勢評估模式,經現場比對後,該模式能預測出多數淺層崩塌,但難以適用於地下水誘發的地滑型崩塌。最後將崩塌潛勢結果結合研究區域內之建物與道路成本,套疊不同頻率年24小時累積降雨,獲得仁愛鄉在50年、100年及200年24小時累積降雨事件下,可能產生的損失風險值分別為11.8億、24.0億及38.7億元。

English Abstract

The study developed landslide susceptibility and risk models based on landslide inventory collected after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Twonship, Nantou County. Approximately 57.0% of landslide cases induced by Typhoon Morakot in Renai Township were located in downslope locations, whereas 20.5% were located in upslope locations. The study created landslide susceptibility models by using logistic regression and the weight of evidence method. The accuracy of these two landslide models were 74.47% and 61.92%, respectively. The logistic regression-based landslide susceptibility model can predict most shallow landslide cases; however, it cannot predict groundwater-induced landslides. Considering the landslide susceptibility and cost of buildings and roads, landslide loss caused by 24-h accumulated rainfall with the return period of 50, 100, and 200 years were estimated to be 1.18 × 10^9, 2.40 × 10^9, and 3.87 × 10^9 dollars, respectively.

Topic Category 生物農學 > 農業
生物農學 > 森林
生物農學 > 畜牧
生物農學 > 漁業
生物農學 > 生物環境與多樣性
工程學 > 土木與建築工程
工程學 > 市政與環境工程