檢測台灣民眾六分類統獨立場：一個測量改進的提出

Re-Examining the 6-Itemed Measurement of Citizen's Preference on the Issue of Independence vs. Unification in Taiwan: A Proposed Advancement

蕭怡靖(Yi-Ching Hsiao) ； 游清鑫(Ching-Hsin Yu)

《台灣政治學刊》 16卷2期 (2012/11) Pp. 65-116

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.201211.16(2).65-116

摘要

現階段以統獨立場六分類理解台灣民眾的統獨偏好，大致上是以單一面向的方式，將統一與獨立分置於面向的兩端，直接詢問民眾的立場位置，此途徑雖然測量語句相當簡潔，但結果卻有相當高比例的民眾選擇「維持現狀」。對此，部分學者提出「條件語句」的測量途徑，在「中共武力犯台」及「兩岸政經落差」的條件設定下，探詢民眾的統獨立場。此法不但能有效拆解「維持現狀」者的真實偏好，也得以釐清民眾在統獨偏好上「理念」與「務實」的考量。但在測量執行與資料處理上則較為複雜，且現實條件的設定極可能隨不同時空環境而改變。對此，本文嘗試在「保持單一面向」又能「有效拆解維持現狀」的前提下，利用「正面追問」及「反面探詢」的方式，重新建構民眾的統獨立場。透過實際的經驗資料檢證，新統獨六分量表不但比原有量表更能有效拆解「維持現狀」者的統獨偏好，呈現出統獨偏好的強弱遞移性，在測量效度的檢測上亦有較佳的結果。在方法論上，本文的嘗試有助於測量方法的改進，在問題本質上，也得以更精確地理解台灣民眾的統獨立場。

關鍵字

統獨立場 ； 民意調查 ； 測量效度

並列摘要

It is commonly seen that the citizens' preferences regarding the issue of ”unification vs. independence” are determined by a six-itemed measurement placing unification and independence as the two ends of a one-dimensional continuum and four other related items in between. The citizens are directly asked to pick out one of the six items. This method has an advantage of being easily understood by citizens when answering questions. However, it has also led to a high proportion of citizens choosing the item referred to as ”maintaining the status quo.” In responding to this defect, scholars have introduced conditional terms, such as ”China's military invasion” and ”political and economic differences between the two sides” to decode the citizen's real intention to maintain the status quo. The method of adding conditional terms also carries a merit of exploring the citizen's ideological and pragmatic considerations on the issue of unification vs. independence. Unfortunately, this method might suffer from complicated measurements and variable processes on the one hand, and from failing to add new conditions effectively under changing environments on the other. In order to maintain the advantage of the one-dimension continuum and decoding the citizens' intention to maintain the status quo at the same time, this essay proposes an improvement by adding two follow-up questions regarding the citizens' second preferences and least-desired preferences on the issue of unification vs. independence after the measurement involving six items. The empirical evidence used in this essay would suggest that the new measurement has not only outperformed the previous measurement involving six items in decoding the citizens' maintenance of the status quo but also the transitivity among the six items. With validity, this new measurement has more explanatory power than the previous measurement. Methodologically, this essay has provided an improvement in the measurement of crucial variables. In essence, this essay has also made the understanding of citizens' preferences regarding the issue of unification vs. independence more perceptible.

並列關鍵字

issue of unification vs. independence ； public opinion survey ； measurement validity

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