臺灣肉類需求的結構變動分析

平地造林政策自2001年8月31日經行政院核定實施，由2002年1月1日開始執行，至今執行已經一年多，執行期間各界關注其執行成效，行政部門亦開始著手進行政策執行之成效評估工作。本研究分析「平地造林」之形成背景與過程，評估現行制度執行之績效，進而探討政策在設計與執行上的困難，以檢討修正方向並作建議。本研究之主要目的在於評估平地造林政策之政策設計是否能達成政策目標，並檢討平地造林第一年之執行績效，透過對整體政策設計、執行成果與執行績效的檢討，進一步分析真正的問題所在，並作政策建議，供決策者參考。本研究分析主要分為兩方面，一方面分析「平地造林政策」在政策執行之績效，另一方面為實證分析。實證分析之資料來源包括推動機關林務局及各執行機關所提供之執行成果與績效資料，以及本研究透過深度訪談各相關人員所取得之資料。經由分析後，本研究認為「平地造林政策」之執行績效仍有待加強，雖然「平地造林政策」在2002年之造林面積共達1591.22公頃，的確達到部分農地利用效率之提昇，然就減少農地休耕面積、紓解農產品產銷失衡現象之整體政策目標而言，「平地造林政策」之執行績效有待改善。故本研究提出數項建議：1.造林區位必須擴大至特定農業區；2.建議造林專區之優先區位給予彈性給付；3.適度放寬造林面積的限制，對於大面積坵塊之造林給予獎勵；4.農務系統應支持平地造林，農會系統應積極協助宣導造林工作；5.政府應研擬平地造林推動之獎勵辦法。

關鍵字

需求體系；肉類需求；結構變化；漸進調整； AIDS

並列摘要

The policy of afforestation in the plain area was certified by the ExecutiveYuan in August 31,2001 and enacted in January 1,2002.Until now,this policyhas been carried out for more than a year,and it is a general concern to theeffectiveness and progress of the policy enforcement.The government alsostarted to evaluate the effectiveness and progress of this policy.This paper analyzes the background and the process of this policyformation,evaluates the effectiveness and progress of the policy enforcement,analyzes the policy design and related difficulties in the enforcement process,analyzes the alternative policy design and makes policy recommendations.The results show that under this policy the total area of forestation in2002 was 1591.22 hectares.It is higher than the first year target of 1500hectares.Although it has improved the land use efficiency of some of theagricultural land,it however fails to fulfill some of the important policyobjectives,such as the reduction of the set-aside area,the decrease of theagricultural production to help alleviative excess supply problems.This paper makes some policy recommendations:1.to expand theafforestation area to the special agricultural zone;2.to designate thepreferable afforestation area in the special agricultural zone and set up theflexible direct payment system;3.to reduce the minimum acreagerequirement for consolidated afforestation and introduce incentive system toencourage the large area afforestation;4.to incorporate the agriculturalsystem into the policy enforcement program and encourage the farmers'association to be actively involved in promoting the afforestation policy;and5.the government should set up the competitive and incentive measures topromote the program.

並列關鍵字

Demand System ； Meat Demand ； Structure Change ； Gradually Switching ； AIDS

參考文獻

Alessie, R., Kapteyn, Arie(1991).Habit Forming and Interdependent Preferences in Almost Ideal Demand System.Economic Journal.101

Google Scholar

Alston, J. M., Chalfant, J. A.(1993).The Silence of the Lambdas: A Test of the Almost Ideal and Rotterdam Models.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.75

Google Scholar

Alston, J. M., Chalfant, J. A.(1991).Unstable Models and Incorrect Forms.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.73

Google Scholar

Andrikopoulos, A., Brox, J., Carvalho, E.(1997).The Demand for Domestic and Imported Alcoholic Beverages in Ontario, Canada: A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Approach.Applied Economics.29(7)