運用系統性決策方法及R軟體迴歸分析建置投標決策系統

Using Systematic Decision-making Methods and R-Regression Analysis to Establish Bidding Decision System

張寶慧(P. H. Chang) ； 許碧敏(B.M. Hsu)

《危機管理學刊》 16卷1期 (2019/03) Pp. 1-6

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.201903_16(1).0001

摘要

國內外之企業、法人或政府組織因應需求會產生採購行為，而為防止採購行為產生弊端以及尋求更多的廠商以購買到物美價廉的商品，大多採取招標方式進行採購，以得到較低的購買成本。而相對地，身處業務單位，則需透過客戶的招標投標方式才能取得訂單。在準備投標的過程中，是否參與投標及如何決定適當的投標價格實為決策者面臨之重大考驗。本研究以系統性決策方法及R統計軟體迴歸分析來建置投標決策系統，於此決策系統中，以預算金額進行決標金額之預測，並蒐集國內某一法人機構在2016～2017年間預算在5千萬元以下之科學技術研究發展購案決標資料共516筆進行分析，建立決標金額之預測模式。以協助決策者快速有效地做出投標決策。

關鍵字

系統性決策方法 ； R統計軟體 ； 迴歸分析 ； 投標決策

並列摘要

To seek more suppliers to purchase inexpensive and high-quality goods, so as to obtain lower purchase cost, most of domestic and foreign enterprises, corporate organizations, or government organizations, adopt tendering methods for purchasing contracts in prevention of abusive occurrences. On the other hand, a business unit needs to obtain the order through the bidding method from the potential customers. In the process of preparing bids, whether or not to participate in bidding and how to determine the appropriate bid price is a major test for decision makers. This study used a systematic decision-making method to build a bid decision system at first, then use the R statistical software regression analysis to predict the amount of award by the budget amount. A total of 516 award data for a Corporate Organization from 2016 to 2017 with budget under 50 million NT dollars were collected for analysis and verification. This system provides the information to assist the decision makers to make decisions quickly and efficiently.

並列關鍵字

systematic decision-making method ； R statistical software ； regression analysis ； bid decision system

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