Title

台灣經濟發展各階段之能源消費與密集度變動之分析

Translated Titles

Analysis on Changes of Energy Consumption and Intensity in Different Stages of the Taiwan Economic Development

Authors

黃鈺愷

Key Words

對數平均迪氏指數分解法 ; 脫鉤分析 ; 能源密集度 ; 能源消費 ; Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index ; Decoupling Analysis ; Energy Intensity ; Energy Consumption

PublicationName

臺灣大學農業經濟學研究所學位論文

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

2014年

Academic Degree Category

碩士

Advisor

孫立群 副教授

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

本文目的是分析台灣整體以及各產業歷年能源密集度和能源消費在過去發展歷程中的變化,並分析台灣整體以及各產業歷年能源消費與經濟成長的脫鉤關係,結合前述指數分解實證結果闡述相關政策意涵,最後將本文實證結果與EU-15國實證結果進行比較。 將影響台灣能源密集度的因素透過對數平均迪氏指數分解法 (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Method Index, LMDI) 分解成兩效果,分別為:捕捉改善效果來自產業結構變化的產業結構效果以及改善效果來自科技進步的技術效果。實證結果顯示產業結構效果在能源危機期間和近十年間有出現惡化,技術效果則在網路泡沫危機期間出現明顯惡化。將影響能源消費的因素分解成解釋能源消費來自經濟成長的產出效果,以及上述的產業結構效果、技術效果,分解結果顯示在各個階段產出為主要解釋能源消費成長的原因。 脫鉤分析 (Decoupling Analysis) 的結果顯示,農業部門長期處在負脫鉤狀態,運輸部門自90年後期漸漸出現脫鉤現象,工業與服務業部門則是長期處在相對脫鉤狀態。未反映國際能源價格、不合宜的租稅減免產業政策、加入WTO、新交通建設投入營運、沒有完善的獎勵節能機制,皆是造成上述實證結果變化的可能原因。

English Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyze how energy intensity and energy consumption change during development evolution in Taiwan, as well as capture decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Taiwan, then compare the result of this article with result of EU-15. There’re two factors from decomposing energy intensity by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Method Index (LMDI), respectively, improvement contribution from changing industrial structure - structural effect, and improvement contribution from technological progress - technological effect. The former worsened energy intensity during Energy Crisis and recent 10 years. The latter deteriorated energy intensity during Dot-com Bubble Crisis. There’re three factors from decomposing energy consumption by same approach, such as production effect, contribution from economic growth, and other two are structural effect and technological effect. The main factor influences energy consumption growth is production effect. Decoupling empirical result shows agricultural sector experiences negative decoupling state during whole study period. Transportation sector improved gradually decoupling state in late 90s. Industrial and service sector maintain relative decoupling state during whole study period. It’s found that domestic energy price without linking with the international energy price, unreasonable tax exemption for certain industries, participated in WTO, new transportation infrastructure operated, and lack of incentive mechanism for saving energy could influence the energy intensity, energy consumption and decoupling state.

Topic Category 生物資源暨農學院 > 農業經濟學研究所
生物農學 > 農業
Reference
  1. 行政院農業委員會(2012)。「農業統計年報」。台北:行政院農業委員會。
    連結:
  2. 李正豐、林勻淅 (2008)。「我國公路運輸溫室氣體排放變動因素分解分析」,『運輸計劃季刊』,37卷,4期,363-380。
    連結:
  3. 施孟隆、黃炳文 (2006)。「台灣農業發展與農業結構變遷之研究」,『中華農會學報』,7卷,4期,324-342。
    連結:
  4. 黃運貴、曹壽民 (2005)。「我國運輸部門能源消費量分解分析」,『運輸學 刊』,17卷,2期,175-208。
    連結:
  5. Ang, B. W., and S. Y. Lee, 1994. “Decomposition of Industrial Energy Consumption:Some Methodological and Application Issues,” Energy Economics, 16(2): 83-92.
    連結:
  6. Ang, B.W., and K.H. Choi, 1997. “Decomposition of Aggregate Energy and Gas Emission Intensities for Industry: A Refined Divisia Index Method,” Energy Journal, 18(3): 59-73.
    連結:
  7. Ang, B.W., F.Q. Zhang and K.H., Choi, 1998. “Factorizing Changes in Energy and Environmental Indicators through Decomposition,” Energy, 23: 489-495.
    連結:
  8. Ang, B. W., F. L. Liu, and E. P. Chew, 2003. “Perfect Decomposition Techniques in Energy and Environmental Analysis”, Energy Policy, 31: 1561-1566.
    連結:
  9. Ang, B.W., 2004. “Decomposition Analysis for Policymaking in Energy: Which is the Preferred Method ?” Energy Policy, 32: 1131-1139.
    連結:
  10. Ang B.W., and N. Liu, 2007a. “Energy Decomposition Analysis: IEA Model Versus Other Methods”, Energy Policy, 35: 1426-1432.
    連結:
  11. Ang, B.W. and N., Liu, 2007b. “Handling Zero Values in the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Decomposition Approach,” Energy Policy, 35: 238-246.
    連結:
  12. Bhattacharyya S. C., and A. Ussanarassamee, 2005. “Changes in Energy Intensities of Thai Industry between 1981 and 2000:A Decomposition Analysis,” Energy Policy, 33: 995-1002.
    連結:
  13. Boyd, G.A., J.F. McDonald, M. Ross, and D.A. Hanson, 1987. “Separating the Changing Composition of US Manufacturing Production from Energy Efficiency Improvement: a Divisia Index Approach,” Energy Journal, 8(2): 77-96.
    連結:
  14. Christopher L. Weber, 2009. “Measuring Structural Change and Energy Use: Decomposition of the US Economy from 1997 to 2002,” Energy Policy, 37: 1561-1570.
    連結:
  15. Hoekstra R., and JJCJM van der Bergh, 2003. “Comparing Structure and Index Decomposition Analysis,” Energy Economics, 25(1): 39-64.
    連結:
  16. IPCC, 2013. “Working group I report: The Physical Science Basis,” Fifth Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
    連結:
  17. Lescaroux F., 2008. “Decomposition of US Manufacturing Energy Intensity and Elasticities of Components with Respect to Energy Prices,” Energy Economics, 30: 1068-1080.
    連結:
  18. Lin, S.J., and T. C. Chang, 1996. “Decomposition of SO2, NOx and CO2 Emissions from Energy Use of Major Economic Sectors in Taiwan,” Energy Journal, 17(1): 1-17.
    連結:
  19. Lu, I. J., Lin, S. J. and Lewis, C., 2007. “Decomposition and Decoupling Effects of Carbon Dioxide Emission from Highway Transportation in Taiwan, Germany, Japan and South Korea,” Energy Policy, 34, 1499-1507.
    連結:
  20. Luukkanen J. and Kaivo-oja J., 2002. “ASEAN Tigers and Sustainability of Energy Use – Decomposition Analysis of Energy and CO2 Efficiency Dynamics,” Energy Policy, 30: 281-292.
    連結:
  21. Ma C., and D. I. Stern, 2008. “China’s Change Energy Intensity Trend: a Decomposition Analysis,” Energy Economics, 30: 1037-1053.
    連結:
  22. Ma, H., L. Oxley, and J. Gibson, 2009. “Substitution Possibilities and Determinants of Energy Intensity for China,” Energy Policy, 37(5): 1793-1804.
    連結:
  23. Marrero, G. A. and F. J. Ramos-Real, 2013. “Activity Sectors and Energy Intensity: Decomposition Analysis and Policy Implications for European Countries (1991–2005),” Energies, 6: 2521-2540.
    連結:
  24. Mendiluce M., I. Perez-Arriaga and C. Ocana, 2010. “Comparison of the Evolution of Energy Intensity in Spain and in the EU15. Why is Spain Different?” Energy
    連結:
  25. OECD, 2002. “Indicators to Measure Decoupling of Environmental Pressure from Economic Growth.”
    連結:
  26. Oh, I..W. Wehrmeyer and Y. Mulugetta, 2010. “Decomposition Analysis and Mitigation Strategies of CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption in South Korea,” Energy Policy, 38: 364-377.
    連結:
  27. Tapio, P., 2005. “Towards a Theory of Decoupling: Degrees of Decoupling in the EU and the Case of Road Traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001,” Transport Policy, 12: 137-151.
    連結:
  28. Zhao, X., N. Li, and C. Ma, 2012. “Residential Energy Consumption in Urban China: A Decomposition Analysis,” Energy Policy, 41: 644-653.
    連結:
  29. 行政院交通部 (2012)。「交通統計月報」。台北:行政院交通部統計處。
  30. 行政院主計處 (2012)。「總體統計資料庫」。台北:行政院主計處。
  31. 行政院經濟部能源局 (2012)。「能源統計年報」。台北:行政院經濟部能源局。
  32. 行政院經濟部能源局 (2012)。「油價緩漲(凍漲)措施之重大事件時間表」。台北:行政院經濟部能源局。
  33. 李堅明、黃宗煌、孫一菱、莊敏芳 (2006)。「台灣二氧化碳排放脫鉤指標之建立與評估」,『台灣經濟論衡』,4卷,3期,1-24。
  34. 許志義、胥愛琦 (1997)。「臺灣能源密集度變動趨勢分析」,『臺灣銀行季刊』,49卷,1期。
  35. Divisia, F., 1925. “L'indice Monétaire et la Théorie de la Monnaie,” Revue d'Economie Politique, 39: 980-1008.
  36. Policy, 38 : 639-645.