DRAM製造企業擴產投資行為之比較分析

A Comparative Analysis of Capacity Investment Behavior in the DRAM Manufacturing Industry

王中興(Jhong-Sing Wang)

指導教授 ： 周雍強

國立臺灣大學/工學院/工業工程學研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.02046

摘要

高科技產業之產品需求具有高度的不確定性，製程技術不斷地向前演進，加上建置新產能所需承擔的龐大成本與可能的營運風險，迫使廠商面臨更多來自環境與經營規劃上的考驗。DRAM產業之景氣循環現象相當明顯，且產能投資具有不可逆性，當需求充滿不確定性，供給與需求在時間上的落差，往往導致產品價格呈現劇烈波動，因此，如何正確掌握未來需求的趨勢，適時且適量來進行理性的擴充產能決策是廠商的獲利關鍵。
本文為擴產投資行為的比較研究，以半導體的DRAM產業為主要的研究對象。藉由分析產業的實際資料，建置兩種擴產行為模型-保守型與積極型，分析在不確定性的環境中，不同擴產行為的績效表現，在環境的設定中加入景氣循環的概念。實證DRAM產業的需求成長適合以幾何布朗運動過程來描述，不同廠商的資本支出與營收具有不同的因果關係；廠商資本支出與全球營收之間亦具有不同時間落差的相關性。最後的模擬結果，若具有製程技術優勢，則不論選哪一種擴產行為均會有不錯的績效表現，若沒有製程技術優勢，則積極型的擴產行為模式會有較佳的績效表現，而需求成長率因子和景氣年數因子均顯著影響績效表現。

關鍵字

擴產投資行為 ； 景氣循環 ； DRAM製造企業 ； 產業分析 ； 模擬分析

並列摘要

The demand of product of High-Tech industry is highly uncertain. Since the development of process technology evolved rapidly, companies may face strict challenges on environment and management planning owing to the cost caused by investment of new capacity and the potential risk of operation. The change on business cycle of DRAM industry is obvious and the investment in capacity is irreversible. The price of products will fluctuate violently because of the gap of supply and demand when demand is full of uncertainty. Therefore, grasping the trend of future demand correctly and expanding capacity in right time rationally is the key of making profits.
This thesis studies the behavior of capacity investment and regards DRAM industry as the research object. By analyzing the real data of the DRAM industry, two kinds of behavioral models are set up: conservative type and aggressive type. The other purpose is to analyze the performance of different types of investment behavior. The concept of business cycle is also considered in this uncertain environment. The results show that the demand of DRAM industry is suitable for being described with GBM process. Different manufacturers have different causality between capital expenditure and revenue. The correlation of manufacturers’ capital expenditure and global DRAM revenue is discrepant in different period. According to the simulation, we find out that manufacturer will have good performances if they have advantages on process technology, no matter which kinds of behavioral types; without technological advantage, the aggressive type will have better performance; and the performance of these two behavioral types is apparently influenced by growth factor and cycle factor.

並列關鍵字

Capacity investment behavior ； Business cycle ； DRAM manufacturing industry ； Industry analysis ； Simulation analysis

參考文獻

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