中國大陸人民來台觀光需求之研究

A Study on the Demand of Mainland China Visitors to Taiwan

徐翊芳(Yi-Fang Hsu)

指導教授 ： 林惠玲

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.11182

摘要

政策及政治因素對於兩岸間經濟、人員、文化等交流有著極為重要的影響，各項政策除了受當時政治氛圍影響之外，更須要透過兩岸政府協商，並調整相關規範之後才能實施。開放陸客來台觀光為馬總統上任以來的重要政策，台灣觀光產業亦對此政策寄予厚望，希望政策開放後，有龐大的客源來台觀光，帶來可觀的經濟效益。因此，本研究即針對政府開放陸客來台的重要政策作為，以及可能影響陸客來台意願的2012總統大選事件進行實證研究，以期了解重要政策作為及2012總統大選事件對於陸客來台觀光需求之影響。
本研究利用季節性自我迴歸移動平均整合模型(SARIMA) ，針對2008年7月至2012年6月陸客來台旅遊人次建立陸客來台觀光需求模型，並以RMSE、MAE、MAPE及THEIL檢測模型預測能力，挑選出SARIMA(2,1,3)(1,0,1)12為陸客來台觀光需求較佳之預測模型，並以該模型進行介入事件分析。
介入分析之實證結果發現，陸客來台旅遊有明顯季節性；2011年4月阿里山小火車翻覆意外短期內會使陸客來台觀光意願降低。此外，開放兩岸直航與開放陸客自由行政策估計係數為正，顯示此二項政策有助於陸客來台人數之增加，與預期相同；2012年總統大選對陸客以團進團出方式來台旅遊有負面影響，但對以自由行方式來台陸客有正面影響；至於提高陸客每日來台觀光人數上限至4000人之估計係數為負，與預期不同。因為樣本變異數大，使得本研究關切的開放兩岸直航、開放陸客自由行、提高陸客每日來台觀光人數上限至4000人及2012總統大選等事件之估計係數在統計上均不顯著。

關鍵字

陸客來台觀光 ； 季節性自我迴歸移動平均整合模型 ； 介入事件分析 ； 觀光需求

並列摘要

Cross-strait economic, personnel and culture exchanges are greatly influenced by policies and politics; therefore all policies, formulated in the context of the immediate political atmosphere, must be negotiated and discussed by both governments across the Strait and have relevant regulations adjusted before full implementation. The opening up of Mainland China tourist visits to Taiwan is an important policy of President Ma after taking office; the Taiwanese tourism industry also had high expectations for the policy, hoping that the great increase in tourist numbers to Taiwan will bring about significant economic benefits. This study has conducted empirical analysis on the policy of opening up for Mainland China tourist visits to Taiwan and the possible impact the 2012 Presidential Elections has on Mainland China tourists’ inclination for traveling to Taiwan, with the aim of better understanding the influence of policies and politics have on demands of Mainland China visits to Taiwan.
Taking into reference the number of Mainland China visits in the period from July 2008 to June 2012, this study has adapted the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA) in creating a model on the demands of Mainland China visits to Taiwan. Furthermore, by examining the model’s predictive ability through RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and THEIL measures, the study has singled out the SARIMA(2,1,3)(1,0,1)12 as the best predictive model for the demands of Mainland China visits to Taiwan, and has used it to conduct intervention analysis.
Empirical evidence shown from the intervention analysis indicate that there is an obvious seasonal cycle for Mainland China visits to Taiwan, and that the train accident in April 2011 temporarily lowered Mainland China tourists’ will to visit Taiwan. Moreover, evidence of the study also show that estimated coefficients for policies of opening up cross-strait direct flights and Mainland China individual tourists to Taiwan proved to be positive, implicating that the two policies are conducive to the increase in Mainland China tourists to Taiwan, which is in accordance to the study’s predictions. It can also be seen through the study’s evidence that the 2012 Presidential Elections had a negative impact on the number of Mainland China group tours to Taiwan, but a positive impact on that of individual tourists to Taiwan. The results of evidence also show that there was a negative estimated coefficient for the policy of raising maximum Mainland China tourists’ maximum limit to 4000 per day, which does not conform to predictions. Also, due to high sample variance, the estimated coefficients for the concerned issues of this study on opening up cross-strait direct flights, opening up for Mainland China individual tourists to Taiwan, increasing Mainland China tourists’ maximum limit to 4000 per day, and the impact of the 2012 Presidential Election were shown to be statistically insignificant.

並列關鍵字

Mainland China tourist visits to Taiwan ； Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA) ； Intervention Analysis ； Tourism Demands

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