Screening the Hotspots of Sediment Disaster in a Watershed and their Resilience Enhancement Using Risk Analysis
韌性 ； 風險評估 ； 土砂災害 ； Resilience ； Risk Assessment ； Derived Disaster
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社區韌性乃近年災害管理之重要議題，而現行災害防救體制主要以災中應變為主，有關災前減災之準備仍有改善空間，本研究以風險概念建置韌性評估模式，量化分析保全對象災前之韌性指標，提出欲改善之韌性提升項目。本研究以國家災害防救科技中心所建置之社會脆弱度指標及架構，利用風險概念結合環境指標，綜合社會及環境韌性之分析，建置上游集水區村里土砂災害韌性模式。 本研究先以風險分析篩選樣區土砂災害熱點區位，再檢討熱點區位之韌性值，因環境韌性之提升係屬災後復建工程，而本研究主要探討災前減災項目，故僅針對社會韌性提出強化村里土砂災害韌性之策略，並以效益分析政策之可行性。依據莫拉克風災前之土砂衍生災害風險分析，顯示同富村為土砂災害熱點區位，該村災前之環境韌性為0.50；社會韌性為0.32，在不調整環境韌性狀況下，經檢視同富村可調整之社會韌性包括組織、經濟及社會等構面，主要調整為山坡地超限利用、訪視訪評成績、歲入來源別補助及協助收入、平均每人政府社會福利支出淨額及土石流潛勢溪流保全戶等指標，除超限利用為法定違規使用採全面禁止處理，其他指標若調整至各村里之均值，其改善後之社會韌性可提升至0.96。 本研究所建置之土砂災害韌性模式，可量化分析村里之土砂災害韌性，對韌性指標提出具體改善對策，並綜合評估韌性構面之改善效益，提供政府相關機構對集水區土砂災害防治之參考。
In recent years, Community resilience is a vital issue in disaster management and the current disaster prevention and protection system is mainly based on response during the disaster. There still have room for improvement in pre-disaster mitigation. This study established model based on the concept of risk to quantitatively analyze the resilience of pre-disaster in the protected targets for proposing resilience improvement projects. Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and its assessment structure adopted from NCDR coupled with environmental indicators were used to analyze the social and environmental resilience for establishing watershed resilience model. Watershed sediment disaster hotspot was screened using risk analysis and then the resilience of the hotspot was examined in this study. Since the improvement of environmental resilience belonging to disaster recovery engineering, it is not the theme of this study which mainly focuses on the pre-disaster mitigation. Only the strategies of strengthening social resilience policy and assessing the feasibility of the policy are explored in the study. Results show that Tongfu Village is a hotspot of sediment disaster according to risk assessment for the pre-event of the typhoon Morakot. Environmental resilience and social resilience of the village at the pre-disaster are 0.50 and 0.32 respectively. Under condition of the same environmental resilience, the social resilience can be improved through the organizational, economic and social aspects: mainly the indices of exceeding utilization, the grade of interview survey , revenues from aid & assistance, government social welfare expenditure, and the protected targets of potential debris flow torrent. Apart from exceeding utilization is a comprehensive prohibition for violation, other indices can be adjusted to the mean value of the villages. Value of social resilience can be improved from 0.32 to 0.96 through the improvement. The model developed in the study can quantitatively analyze the environmental and social resilience of the villages, propose specific improvement measures of the resilience index, evaluate the improvement benefits of aspect resilience, and provide suggestions for relevant government agencies to prevent and control sediment disasters in a watershed.
生物農學 > 生物環境與多樣性