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  • 學位論文

結合情境分析、擴散模型和競爭模型分析智慧型手機平台的發展

Combining Scenario Analysis with Diffusion Model and Competitive Model for the Analyzing the Development of Operating System of Smartphone

指導教授 : 曾芳美
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摘要


近年來智慧型手機迅速發展,而手機成長的關鍵因素,已從過去的硬體,轉移到現在的軟體和服務層面,因此細究影響軟體和服務發展的關鍵因素,才能掌握智慧型手機銷售的優勢和劣勢。 現階段主要三大平台,分別為Android, Symbian和iOS,以現階段來看,Android的開放式平台成長迅速,而APPLE所出的封閉式系統iOS所展現出的高度創新也成功的吸引了廣大的消費族群,過去的手機龍頭NOKIA所搭載的Symbian市占率雖然快速下滑,然而搭載量仍舊在攀升。 綜觀過去對智慧型手機平台的發展,多數著重在消費者的角度來探討,而本研究從廠商的角度切入,了解從廠商的層面影響智慧型手機平台發展的關鍵因素,並且結合了情境分析法、競爭模型和多代產品擴散模型,達到質化與量化的建立和趨勢分析。智慧型手機平台間的發展,彼此間的競合關係互相牽引著彼此的成長或衰退,而競爭模型驗證結果,智慧型手機平台間並無直接競爭關係,彼此於近五年內持續成長,甚至有部分平台間有互利共生的利基。而影響平台成長的關鍵因素牽涉到整個智慧型手機產業鏈,研究亦顯示平台的開放程度,影響到產業鏈間的合作深淺,進而影響到該平台受到支持與否的優勢地位。情境顯示,在最可能的情況下,部分開放的平台,在得到產業鏈間的支持和效能最佳化的兩者間,最能達到平衡。本研究最後也針對這些因素進行討論並提出相關建議。

並列摘要


The sales volume of Smartphone grew rapidly recently and the key factor of growth has changed from hardware to software and service. In order to realize the strength and weakness in the growth of Smartphone, we should emphasize on the development of software and service. There are three major platforms in the market, including Android, iOS and Symbian. Android is a platform with open source which lead to rapid growth. iOS is the closed platform and its innovative performance attract a lot of consumers successfully. Nokia was the leading mobile phone in the past. The market share of its platform “Symbian” falls down quickly. However, the sales volume still increases. In term of the past research about the development of Smartphone, most of them focus on the opinion of consumers. In our study, we see the factor from the firm level to realize how their strategies influence the development of Smartphone’s OS. Combined with scenario analysis, competitive model and diffusion model, we build the scenario and forecast the trend of diffusion. The result shows that there is no significant substitute effect among each OS in the next five years. On the contrary, some platforms have symbiotic relation with each other. Moreover, the key factors of platform’s development are related to all industry chain. In our study, we also find degree of open level influence the cooperation among industry chain. this point influence if the platform was supported or not.

參考文獻


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