Translated Titles

Study on Risk Analysis of Overbank in Flood Control System



Key Words

溢堤 ; 風險分析 ; Overbank ; Risk Analysis



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Chinese Abstract

中文摘要 多數防洪系統的規劃與設計,都是在未充分利用資料下完成,常常面臨水文資料的缺乏、水文紀錄年限的不足,再加上變數的不確定性等問題,使得決策往往必須在不確定的條件下完成,一般河川存有水文、地文等不確定性因子,傳統規劃將不確定因子取定值演算,以出水高來涵蓋各種不確定性,但卻無法量化風險值,有鑑於此,如何考慮存在的不確定性,定量評估防洪設施之風險,乃為現今災害防治重要的工作之一。 本研究以曾文溪為例,以Hasofer-Lind二次矩可靠度指標分析方法為基礎,應用EXCEL的「規劃求解」工具,考量諸水文、地文因子的不確性,建立溢堤風險分析模式,利用所發展的風險量化評估方法,進行防洪設施溢堤風險評估,並對未來自然力變異對溢堤風險之影響予以量化,以提供防洪設施規劃設計及決策之參考。本研究建立之模式可於河川規劃時推算防洪系統在不確定因子下之溢堤風險值,再依討論之容許風險值決定河寬及堤防高程之計畫值。

English Abstract

ABSTRACT Most designs and planning of flood control system are constructed under inadequately used data. Thus, the lack of hydrology data, insufficient time of hydrology record and other uncertain factors push decision making completed under unsure conditions. In general rivers contain uncertainly hydrologic and geomorphic factors. As a result, traditional planning makes calculation by taking fixed value estimate from uncertain factors, using free board to cover all kinds of uncertainty, but unable to quantify risks. As a consequence, it is an important effort to consider the existence of uncertainty and to quantify the risks of flood control facility in contemporary hazard mitigation. This research, using Zengwun River as an example, is based on the Hasofer-Lind’s analysis of second moment reliability index method, and uses “solver tool” in EXCEL program. In order to consider the uncertainty of hydrologic and geomorphic factors, we establish an analytical model of overbank risks, and use the developed quantified risk method to estimate the failure probability by overbank for flood control facility. In addition, we provide reference to assist decision making and planning of flood control facility by quantify the effect of overbank probability from natural power variations. The model established in this research can approximate the value of overbank risks in flood control system under uncertain factors. Then we can decide the planning value of river width and bank elevation from tolerable probability values.

Topic Category 工學院 > 水利及海洋工程學系碩士在職專班
工程學 > 水利工程
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Times Cited
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