Trump's Actions Speak Louder than His Words: Reversal of Trump's China Policy After Assuming the Presidency

Ian Tsung-yen Chen

《Prospect Journal》 17期 (2017/04) Pp. 25-58

摘要

This paper asks whether Donald Trump is likely to act tough on China as he signaled during his campaign for the U.S. presidency. According to evidence presented in this paper, I argue that the Trump administration has adopted a more moderate approach after assuming power for two reasons. First, Trump did not base his past harsh rhetoric on facts; therefore, there is no foundation to support a containment strategy against China. Second, antagonizing China in economic affairs may create unintended consequences for the U.S., which may harm the U.S. domestic economy and his odds of winning a second term. In the South China Sea, however, Trump will continue with a tougher stance, but refrain from further escalation because backing down on security issues will signify his cowardice, which will generate domestic audience costs. As a result, the likelihood of starting a trade war, currency war, or military showdown in East Asia under Trump is low.

關鍵字

Donald J. Trump ； U.S.-China Relations ； Trade Imbalance ； Renminbi ； China