銷售預測精準度和財務績效表現的探討

Consensus Forecasting Management: Demand Forecasting and Financial Planning

李演珍(Yen-Chen Li)

指導教授 ： 郭瑞祥

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學組/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.10042

摘要

企業競爭優勢存在於當企業能夠提供和競爭者相同品質產品或服務，但其所付出的成本卻比競爭者來得低，於是就產生了成本優勢。或是企業所提供的產品或服務品質遠超過競爭者所能提供的產品或服務品質, 就形成了差異化優勢。因此，競爭優勢使企業能夠創造較高的價值給它的客戶和為自己帶來更高的利潤。

企業的資源和能力一起形成了特殊的能力。這些特殊的能力能夠提升創新、效率、品質和引起顧客的興趣等，它們可以彼此互補去形成企業的成本優勢或差異化優勢。一致性的銷售預測包含了需求預測和財務規畫的安排，同時它也是供應鏈管理和價值鏈管理的關鍵品質事項之一。由於消費用品產業是一個競爭激烈的產業，所以執行速度和控制成本的能力是決定企業競爭優勢的關鍵因素。同時，好的銷售預測品質使企業能夠打敗競爭者，從競爭環境中脫穎而出、贏得市場佔有率和極大化股東的價值。

銷售預測管理的最佳化和整合，是與企業的策略密切相連結，為員工、顧客、和股東創造價值。更重要的是，一個健全的銷售預測管理帶來了許多的利益，包含改善營業效率、增加客戶滿意度、確保在任何時間及情況下事業的延續性。 運用六標準差的DMAIC方法和平衡計分卡評估的方法論，幫助此個案公司實現了銷售預測管理的目標。

關鍵字

六標準差DMAIC ； 平衡計分卡 ； 價值鏈 ； 供應鏈 ； 競爭優勢 ； 成本優勢 ； 差異化優勢 ； 事業策略

並列摘要

A competitive advantage exists when the firm is able to deliver the same benefits as competitors but at a lower cost(Cost Advantage), or deliver benefits that exceed those of competing products(Differentiation Advantage). Thus, a competitive advantage enables the firm to create superior value for its customers and superior profits for itself.

The firm’s resources and capabilities together form its distinctive competencies. These competencies enable innovation, efficiency, quality and customer responsiveness, all of which can be leveraged to create a cost advantage or a differentiation advantage. Consensus forecasting consists of demand forecasting and financial planning, and is the critical to quality (CTQ) to supply chain management as well as value chain management. Given the extremely competitive environment of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry, speed to market and keep cost down are the critical elements to determine firm’s competitive advantage. Meanwhile, a good quality of consensus forecasting is the enabler to win over competition, gain market share and maximize shareholder value.

The optimization and integration of consensus forecasting management, all aligned with firms’ business strategy to create value for employees, customers and shareholders. More importantly, a robust consensus forecasting management brings the benefit of improving business efficiency and effectiveness, increasing customer satisfaction, ensuring business continuity at all times. The DMAIC and Balance Scorecard methodology were rolled up to help the firm to deliver its objective of consensus forecasting management.

並列關鍵字

DMAIC ； Balanced Scorecard ； Value Chain ； Supply Chain ； Competitive Advantage ； Cost Advantage ； Differentiation Advantage ； Business Strategy

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