影響台灣農業收入之因素及政策意涵

The Factors Affecting Taiwan Farmers’ Agricultural Revenue and Their Policy Implications

李昌鴻(Chang-Hung Li)

指導教授 ： 陳郁蕙

共同指導教授 ： 孫立群(Lih-Chyun Sun)

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.00346

摘要

我國經濟成功起飛係因雄厚穩固的農業基礎與適當的經濟政策，但在經濟發展的同時，產業發展重心由農業部門逐漸轉往至工商業部門。此外，我國農業更面臨生產面的困境，包括務農人口高齡化、農牧戶眾多，每戶農業經營面積狹小，土地零碎，平均經營面積不到1公頃、近三成的農牧戶沒有務農承接者、以及七成五以上的農牧戶內人口為務農兼業者等等。這些原因致使我國農牧戶收入較非農戶收入低。本研究之目的在於找出並分析影響我國農業收入的因子，並依照我國當前現況，對於相關影響收入因子給予政策方面的建議。
本研究使用2000年、2005年以及2010年農林漁牧普查資料，配合文獻歸納整理，並且以敘述統計、交叉分析，初步釐清影響農業收入的因子，並將其放入以多元迴歸分析以及分量迴歸分析中，檢視各因子在不同的農業收入百分比的農牧戶下，對於我國農業收入的影響程度，並給予建議。
研究結果顯示，農牧戶經營管理者的年齡及教育程度、農牧戶經營規模、農牧戶是否有務農承接者、農牧戶是否為全職農牧戶、農牧戶所在地區、以及農牧戶之經營種類，皆為影響農業收入之因子。
從研究結果對於政策的建議如下：
1. 降低農牧戶經營管理者年齡會對農業收入產生正向的影響效果，且若從畜牧養殖戶著手改善經營管理者高齡化的問題，農業收入提升的效果會比從農耕戶著手改善來的好。若從不同農業收入的角度切入，從較低農業收入的農牧戶改善經營者高齡化問題，對農業收入正向的影響效果，會比從較高農業收入的農牧戶著手進行改善，效果來的好。
2. 若要提昇農牧戶經營者的教育程度來增加農業收入，應該從畜牧養殖戶的經營管理者著手進行，研究結果顯示，與農耕戶相比，改善畜牧養殖戶經營者的教育程度，對農業收入的提昇效果比較高。
3. 與較低農業收入的農戶相比，提升農業收入較高者的經營規模，對於增加農業收入的效果較好，同時，方便與完善的農村金融機構，對於高資本投入的經營種類極為重要，即時的資金周轉，減少農牧戶經營規模擴大所面臨的障礙。
4.，從農業收入較高的農戶，著手進行解決農牧戶沒有務農繼承者的問題，對於農業收入提升的效果會比較好。
5. 鼓勵農業收入較高的農戶全職務農，以解決兼業的問題，對農業收入的提升效果會較農業收入較低的農戶來的好。

關鍵字

高齡化 ； 農業收入 ； 農林漁牧業普查 ； 多元迴歸模型 ； 分量迴歸模型

並列摘要

The success of economic development in Taiwan is due to solid agricultural foundation and appropriate economic policies. However, during that period, the focus shifts from agriculture sector to industry and business sector. In addition, the agriculture in Taiwan encounters difficulties in production, including aging farming population, farm households with average operation area less than 1 ha, nearly 30% of farm households have no successor, and over 75% of the farming population is part-time farmers. These reasons cause lower income of farm households than non-farm households. The purpose of this research is to figure out and analyze the factors that influence the agricultural revenue in Taiwan. Furthermore, provide suggestions of agriculture policy based on the findings in this research.
This research analyzes Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery and Animal Husbandry Census of 2000, 2005 and 2010. First, this research conducts descriptive statistics and cross analysis to find out the factors influence on agricultural revenue. In addition, it uses the factors as independent variables in multiple regression analysis and quantile regression analysis to examine the effects to agricultural revenue at different quantiles.
The result of this study showed that farm operator’s age and education, operation scale, farm with or without successor, full-time or part-time farm, farm region, and farming type are related to agricultural revenue.
Suggestions from the results in this study are as follows:
1. Lower the age of farm household operators has positive effect to agricultural revenue. In addition, from the result we can learn that improving aging problem for animal husbandry households has stronger effect than agriculture households. From different perspective of agricultural revenue, improve aging problem in low-income farms has better effect in increasing agricultural revenue than high-income farms.
2. Similarly, improve education level in animal husbandry households has more significant result in increasing agricultural revenue than agriculture household.
3. Compared with low agricultural revenue farm households, expanding the operation scale of high agricultural revenue farm households has more efficient in increasing agricultural revenue. Meanwhile, convenience and sufficiency of rural financial institution is extremely important for highly invested business. It provides easier way to improve operation scale of agriculture and animal husbandry households.
4. Overcome farm households without successor problem for high agriculture revenue farm households have preferable effect to low agriculture revenue farm households.
5. Settle part-time issues for high agriculture revenue farm households have larger effect than low agriculture revenue farm households in improving agricultural revenue.

並列關鍵字

Aging farming population ； Agricultural revenue ； Forestry, Fishery and Animal Husbandry Census ； Multiple regression analysis ； Quantile regression analysis

參考文獻

楊書綺，2008。「台灣稻米政策對稻農經營規模之影響」。碩士論文，國立台灣大學農業經濟學研究所。

呂政道，2009。「台灣農民年齡與農耕戶勞動生產力之關係」。碩士論文，國立台灣大學農業經濟學研究所。

邱敬仁，2003。「台灣農業部門勞動力流動之研究」。碩士論文，國立台灣大學農業經濟學研究所。

陳惠欣、黃登源，2011。「花卉產銷特性之研究-以台灣地區為例」。『數據分析』。第6卷，第4期，13-42。

廖安定、魏碧珠，2006。「新農業運動－農地銀行之建置與推動」。『農政與農情』。第187期，50-56。