臺灣實施高接梨天然災害保險之分析

A Study of Implementing Grafted Pears Nature Disasters Insurance in Taiwan

黃立夫(Li-Fu Huang)

指導教授 ： 吳珮瑛

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201703613

摘要

本研究係以主要造成高接梨損害之颱風、低溫及豪雨等3種災害類型，自1990年起至2015年止共225筆資料，估算高接梨的損失函數，研究發現「風速」、「降雨日數」及「溫度」等氣象變數，對災害損失有顯著影響。
此外，依損失函數估算各區高接梨損失，並依純保險費法計算各區保險費率，研究結果顯示，對照全國單一費率下，各地區保險費率均為6.25%；而分區差別費率北部、中部、南部、東部之費率分別為5.78%、6.58%、0.67%及3.03%。在分區差別費率下，可反映出損失幅度及損失頻率均高，風險程度較高的中部其保險費最高；而南部風險程度最低，所估算的保險費亦較低；代表費率訂定得反映風險成本，可防範逆選擇發生，有助風險之分散。因此，如政府欲補貼農民保費，應以分區差別費率為基礎進行保險費補貼，方能使政府資源更有效率的配置。
又極端氣候的發生有增加的趨勢，故以損失函數模擬極端氣候，以中部為例，在最大瞬間風速達每秒44公尺、當月累積降雨日數達27日，受害面積達4,464公頃，該地區近九成土地皆遭受嚴重災害時，農民每公頃的理賠金額為663,630元，相較於現金救助僅領取90,000元，可多領取573,630元。故可知保險制度尤對於巨災發生時，減輕農民損失相較現金救助制度是極為明顯的幫助。
另在實施分區差別費率及強制投保基礎下，政府原用於天然災害現金救助每年的支出約4,795萬元，轉用於為農民投保高接梨保險，在提供基本保障之每公頃保險費用20萬元下，換算出政府可為農民投保的總面積達3,740公頃，占梨總種植面積5,465公頃的比例達七成，代表災害風險更能有效分散，將使保險機制運作更為健全穩定。研究結果亦顯示，政府如提供農民保險費二分之一的補助及一年期保險費無息貸款，政府支出約為3,575萬元，較天然災害現金救助的支出每年可以節省1,220萬元。

關鍵字

損失函數 ； 單一保險費率 ； 差別保險費率 ； 強制保險 ； 純保險費法

並列摘要

This study analyzed the damage of grafted pears caused by three main types of disasters, i.e. typhoon, low temperature, and heavy rain during 1990-2015. A set of data with total 225 observations was employed to estimate the loss function of grafted pears. The study found that “wind speed,” “the number of rainfall days,” and “temperature” and other meteorological variables had significant impacts on loss of grafted pears.
According to the estimated loss function, the loss of grafted pears in each region with pure premium method, the premium rate was calculated for each region. The research result shows that as compared with the national flat-rate, the premium rate of each region are 6.25%; while the regional differential-rate for the northern, central, southern, and eastern parts were 5.78%, 6.58%, 0.67%, and 3.03%, respectively. Under risk-based premium rate, the highest loss rate and the most loss frequency for central region has the highest premium, which has the highest degree of risk. On the contrary, the lowest degree of risk in southern region has the lowest estimated premium. This can prevent the adverse selection and help the risk of dispersion. Therefore, if the government wants to subsidize the premiums for farmers, it is necessary to subsidize the premiums on the base of risk-based premium rate in different regions and to have efficient arrangement of resources.
As with the increase of extreme weather occurrence, the estimated loss function can be used to simulate the loss of for extreme climate. Taking central region as an example, at a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 44 meters per second, the cumulative rainfall reaching 27 days within a month, total damage for the region with 4,464 hectares, and about 90% of the land are suffering from serious disasters, farmers of this region can claim 663,630 NTD per hectare. This amount is much higher than current cash assistance which farmer can only receive 90,000 NTD per hectare. It is obvious that the insurance system provides much assistance to farmers as compared to the cash assistance policy under catastrophe situation.
The annual expenditure for the government is about 47.95 million NTD for natural disaster cash assistance. The risk-based premium rate in different regions with compulsory insurance implementation under basic protection of 200,000 NTD per hectare, the government can insure up to 3,740 hectares. This accounts for 70% of total grafted pears planting area. The results also show that the government subsidizes farmers to pay half of premium and one-year premium interest-free loans, government will spend about 35.55 million NTD annually. The risk-based premium will save 12.2 million NTD per year as compared to cash assistance policy for natural disaster.

並列關鍵字

loss function ； flat premium rate ； risk-based premium rate ； compulsory insurance ； pure premium method

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