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  • 學位論文

軍事資訊系統計畫建案風險管理之研究

The plan of military information on the risk management

指導教授 : 陳文華

摘要


在國內學術研究的範疇內,有關風險管理的部份已多所討論,惟大多採回歸、統計、或模糊理論等分析方法,並且多偏重於風險之辨認與監控等方面。我們也發現目前在國軍各項武器系統購置計畫中,有關風險衡量的部份與解釋風險間之關係模式仍缺乏深入的探討,在日前行政院甫成立六千億武器購案的同時,風險管理成為其中之主要課題。因為軍以戰為主,各項武器購案皆決定未來戰場之勝敗關鍵,其間假使風險無法準確的被衡量,則可能導致決策錯誤。 然而,軍事武器購案範圍牽涉太過廣泛,為使本研究能精確的找出風險衡量的適用模式,特別聚焦於軍事資訊系統建購專案之風險項目,利用焦點討論、腦力激盪以及參考相關資訊系統發展模式之文獻,以計畫時程為經,系統專案管理為緯的方式,擬訂八大類四十九項風險變數,再以專家訪談方式訂出各風險因素權重,並擬訂二種資訊系統獲得之風險管理模式—委外及自製計畫,再以部份最小平方法(Partial Least Square; PLS)演算出其中各相關變數的關係,並以數學式驗證其因素大小與相對應關係。 本研究主要在尋求一個資訊計畫風險管理之衡量模式,期能提供決策者在計畫執行前能對相關風險變數有一具體的認識,各變數亦提供二種量化之風險權值,分別用Excel計算與PLS推算之權重,各風險因素間之先後處理及強弱關係,可透過演算係數明顯的表示出來,其中各變數對風險因素衝擊度之影響,依據PLS演算法便可立即瞭解那些變數可不予理會,那些風險變數需立即處理;此外比較系統委外與自製二模式之風險管理,亦可提供管理者在何種風險情況下決定以何種方式執行之重要依據。

並列摘要


In the academic research in Taiwan, there are many discussions of risk management. Most discussions are about the analysis of regression, statistics and fuzzy theory and emphasize risk identification as well as organization monitor. Now there is still lack of both risk management and explanation of risk relation model in the weapon procurement plan. The risk management in the weapon procurement project passed by the Legislative Yaun has become a main topic. Every weapon procurement project will be the key of winning battle. If the risk can not be measured exactly, it is possible to make the wrong decision. To find a suitable model applying in the risks judgments, we focus on the risks of the military information system procurement project. By focus discussions, brain storms, and references of military information system, we can frame the risk factors and decide the risk priorities by discussing with experts. Finally, we verify the relations by PLS algorithms. The research is to find the measurement model of risk management and hence provides the decision maker powerful information.

參考文獻


林大舜,「建構電子化政府資訊推動計畫的風險管理制度之研究」,元智大學碩士論文
徐聖訓,知識管理與價值創造關聯之論文集。國立台灣大學商學研究所博士論文,
R. Klompe and E.W. Berghout, Method is a critical success factor for IS evaluation, 2nd European Conformance on IT Investment, Henley on Thames, UK, 1995.
Guidelines for successful Acquisition and Management of Software Intensive System V-3.0, Department of Air Force, USA, May 2000.
DSMC IEEE Recommended Practice for Architectural Description of Software-Intensive System,IEEE Std 1471-2000, IEEE-SA Standard Board, 21 Sep. 2000

被引用紀錄


楊子豪(2014)。供應鏈長鞭效應、敏捷力與績效關聯性之研究〔碩士論文,國立虎尾科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6827%2fNFU.2014.00157
許書綸(2013)。結合多屬性決策與資料探勘技術建構企業績效評估與預測之模式〔碩士論文,國立虎尾科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0028-0108201317101900

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