現階段兩岸經貿互動機制之研究：層次分析觀點

A Study of Current Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Interaction Mechanisms: A Levels-of-Analysis Perspective

張志豪(Chih-Hao Chang)

指導教授 ： 郭建中 ； 王國臣

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00320

摘要

一直以來，中國大陸在「一中原則」下，迴避與台灣透過多邊WTO機制互動或解決經貿爭議。2001至2008年兩岸僅能仰賴中國大陸對台灣的經貿戰略調整，或透過半官方的海基及海協或是非官方的民間組織等「中介組織」協調處理，兩岸不僅未能在多邊國際經貿結構下互動，也缺乏雙邊經貿互動機制。兩岸兩會在2008年重啟對話，前後簽訂了包括ECFA等21項協議及達成2項共識，形成新的經貿互動關係。但面對這個全球第一大出口國、第二大貿易國，台灣應該以何種戰略因應，運用哪些既有機制互動，才能確保雙邊經貿互動的穩定與保障，殊值探討。
本研究以新自由制度主義及國際建制論說明互動機制的特性。透過層次分析理論以「國際體系」、「兩岸體系」、「國家/政府」及「政黨/民間層次」等四個層次作為分析單元，探討現階段兩岸經貿互動機制的互動關係。藉由華茲(Kenneth N. Waltz)的層次分析理論建構模型基礎，發現兩岸經貿互動的關鍵因素在於國際體系及兩岸體系層次。兩岸在國際體系層次互動確實會因國際規範的制約，由上而下的影響第二層的兩岸體系層次，甚至兩者互動之後，也會進一步影響國家/政府層次及政黨/民間層次的作用程度。因此，若國際體系與兩岸體系結構的「制度」與「規範」仍未改善，台灣如果再度政黨輪替，近年來所建構的經貿互動機制很有可能在雙邊互信基礎不足情況下，新自由制度主義所強調的「合作」與「互賴」只是曇花一現，甚至在中國大陸的一個中國原則下回到原點。

關鍵字

兩岸經貿互動機制 ； 新自由制度主義 ； 國際建制論 ； 層次分析理論

並列摘要

Under its ‘One China’ principle, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has avoided not only cooperation with Taiwan through multilateral WTO mechanisms but also the resolution of economic and trade frictions and disputes. Between 2001 and 2008, cross-strait relations had depended entirely on the PRC’s adjustments to its economic strategy towards Taiwan, as well as negotiations between the semiofficial Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS). Under this framework, both Taiwan and China were unable to interact under multilateral economic and trade frameworks and bilateral interaction mechanisms. Since the resumption of cross-strait talks in 2008, the two sides signed a total of 21 agreements, including the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in addition to reaching two consensuses which developed a new type of cross-strait relationship. However, faced with the rising of the PRC, the world’s largest exporting country and the second-largest trading nation, it is important to look at the strategies and mechanisms Taiwan should use to ensure cross-strait stability and security.
Based on neoliberal institutionalism and international regimes, this study attempts to clarify the features of different mechanisms for interaction. It does so by looking from four current different levels-of-analysis: international institutions, cross-strait institutions, nations and governments, as well as the party and the public. The study finds that through Kenneth N. Waltz’s levels-of-analysis model-based theory, the key factors of trade interaction between PRC and Taiwan can be referred to as international and cross-strait institutions. More specifically, the cross-strait interaction is influenced by international institutions and by cross-strait institutions as well. Furthermore, it finds that the function degree of nations and governments as well as the party and the public is also impacted. As a result, if institutionalism and scale of international and cross-strait institutions are not improved at the same time that Taiwan goes through another change in government, it becomes highly possible that neoliberal ideas of mutual trust, cooperation and interdependency may fail as the PRC returns to its arguments under the ‘one China’ principle.

並列關鍵字

Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Interaction Mechanisms ； Neo-Liberal Institutionalism ； International regimes ； Level-of-Analysis

參考文獻

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