探討產品研發專案之風險評估模式- 以筆記型電腦表面材質為例

A Study on Risk Assessment Model of Product Design Project - Illustrated by surface material of NB

劉書宏(Shu-Hung Liu)

指導教授 ： 林榮禾

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/工業工程與管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2011.00630

摘要

全球電腦市場競爭力日益激烈，筆記型電腦品牌公司為了使消費者有更好的選擇，提供表面材質及外觀設計之創新，來提高品牌市佔率。表面材質設計創新之創新，會導致產品外觀可靠度降低及研發時程延長，相對帶來更多研發的風險，故風險之評估，成為企業競爭力不可或缺關鍵要素之一。本研究因而提出以筆記型電腦表面材質產品專案為例，建立產品研發專案之風險評估模型，分別應用德菲法 (Delphi Method, DM) 專家問卷、模糊層級分析法 (Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process, FAHP) 於評估影響筆記型電腦表面材質產品專案之重要風險因子。研究結果顯示，筆記型電腦表面材質產品專案下能提供 42 項風險因子分類，包含高、中高、中、低度風險。企業可應用此模式，節省繁雜的過程，考慮未來用相關合適的風險處理機制之研發管理來降低風險，並為企業帶來更佳的競爭力。

關鍵字

專案風險評估 ； 德菲法 ； 模糊 ； 模糊層級分析法

並列摘要

With the time of continuously increasing of market completition in PC industry, the notebook brand owners start to promote the reforms and innovations in surface material and appearance design, come up with all kinds of features that attract customers and raise their produce market percentage and the brand influence. In addition, innovations in these sectors made enterprises more likely to decrease product's load bearing capacity and prolong the period of design, increasingly putting development courses involved at risk. Thus it can be seen from this that risk assessment is indispensable to the enterprise's competitiveness. Therefore, the objection of this research is focused on the product project on surface material of notebook computer case, and applies Delphi Method (DM) and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to make assessments on primary risk indicators which may cause the negative effect on the product project based on the risk assessment model established. The research results show that this product project studied could totally provide us with 42 kinds of risk indicators categorized into four levels, namely the high degree risk, the medium to high,the mid-level risk and the low-level risk. Using this model, enterprises can select a series of suitable basic tactics and concrete measures of the risk management to avoid the tedious manipulation and lower the risks, making them more competitive.

並列關鍵字

Project risk assessment ； Delphi Method ； fuzzy ； FAHP

參考文獻

[1] 王慶富，專案管理，台北：聯經出版公司，1999

[3] 林大舜、陳啟光，「建構資訊推動計畫風險管理模式之研究：以電子公文計畫推動為」，管理與系統，第十卷，第三期，2003，第 303-328 頁。

[20] 林大舜、陳啟光，「建構資訊推動計畫風險管理模式之研究：以電子公文計畫推動為」，管理與系統，第十卷，第三期，2003，第 303-328 頁。

[48] Paula Wagner and Bruce T. Barkley, Global Project Management, McGraw-Hill, 2010

[24] A.L. Delbecq and A. H. Van de Ven and D. H. Gustafson, Group Techniques