在2008年,受到金融風暴與經濟環境景氣的影響,企業面臨著生存的重大難題。當選擇「開源」或是「節流」的策略如何進一步擬訂時,首先要對產業與企業本身的經營績效加以評估才能決定所要執行的策略為何。本研究主要是利用蒙地卡羅模擬法以及交叉效率分析來提升一般資料包絡分析法所評估結果之精確度,並以2010年的研究 (僅利用資料包絡分析法) 所評估國內15家LED產業2007-2009三年之經營績效分析結果為比較對象。研究分為二個階段,第一階段中,在參數選擇與2010年研究一樣,利用國內15家LED產業2007-2009三年之經營績效分析結果比較優劣,第二階段利用本研究之架構進行國內15家LED產業2010-2012三年之經營績效評估,更新國內LED產業之經營績效評估資訊。實證結果為當結合蒙地卡羅模擬法後,有提升精確度;但加入交叉效率分析後,則無顯著提升。以2010-2012三年之資料評估所得之結果,許多廠商仍需要調降企業內部之營運費用,其中又以研發費用及人事管理費用急需調降之廠商居多。
During the 2008, the enterprises face the tough financial crisis and the downward economic environment. To choose the strategy of either increase revenue or decrease expenditure, the enterprises have to evaluate the management performance first. In this study, we proposed an approach using Monte Carlo Simulation and Cross-Efficiency to improve the business performance evaluation, which was done by previous research (with Data Envelopment Analysis only) that assessed the 15 domestic LED industries during 2007-2009. This study was divided into two stages. In the first stage, we compared the business performance of previous 15 domestic LED industries during 2007-2009 with the same parameters. In the second stage, this study evaluated the results of business performance in 2010-2012. In addition, we also renewed the business performance evaluation of the domestic LED industry. The results of this study showed that combined the Monte Carlo simulation was a good tool for upgrading the prediction. However, when combined with the Cross-Efficiency analysis, it did not perform well. Based on the 2010-2012 data, the results showed the enterprises had to reduce the operational cost especially in the Research & Development and Human Resource department.