為了因應環境的快速變化與全球化的競爭,半導體記憶體產業包括DRAM、Flash必須思變,需要著重終端應用市場需求,積極發展新應用,而近年智慧型手機的發展趨勢看漲而所需要的關鍵IC-MCP產品是由一顆FLASH與一顆DRAM堆疊封裝而成的IC產品。選擇合適的委外封裝廠商以及評估新產品導入所需的投資報酬非常的重要,而從公司與外包廠商的往來互動的評比,以及對投資成本的事前評估成為是否投資設備的委外決策的重要因素。本研究目的主要運用紫式決策分析架構,建構一個分析設備投資或委外之決策評估模型,利用AHP 分析層級法與決策樹分析方法,建立適合的評選方法,再由實證研究公司個案以檢驗本研究效度。本論文藉由文獻探討產業相關,清楚知道產業發展趨勢以及新產品的應用發展可能性;彙整供應商評選評估指標的屬性,確切考慮品質、交期、工程與服務等重點屬性,作為AHP分析主觀因子評選外包廠商之評估準則;考量不確定因子市場需求因素,利用決策樹計算期望金錢價值有效評估投資報酬結果。本研究建構的決策模型詳細分析外包廠商的主、客觀因素而得外包廠商優劣排序,決策者可因應自身需求與公司策略作對公司最有利的考量,作為最後決策的依據。實證研究結果發現本研究可以做為一個於實務上方便易用的決策模式,可依據不同領域,適當修訂準則與權重以及實際金錢的計算,而獲得有利的決策。
In response to quick environmental change and global competition, semiconductor memory industry including DRAM and Flash needs new thinking and strategy to deal with the challenges and focus more on the demands of end-application markets. Recently, MCP that consists of a number of FLASH and DRAM being stacked and assembled within the same IC has a high growth as key component in smart phones market. It is important to select the appropriated assemble house and estimate the return of investment when implement the new product. This thesis aims to propose a decision framework based on the UNISON Decision Framework to evaluate the outsourcing vendors and the associated alternatives for equipment investments. In particular, we have conducted literature review to know the industry trends and new product application development possibilities. We constructed the objective hierarchy and the evaluation attributes for selecting the vendors including quality, delivery, engineering and service. We employed AHP model to evlaute the alternatives, while also considered the uncertain factor of the market demand factors, in which decision tree is used to calculate the expected monetary values based on the investment return. An empirical study was conducted in Taiwan for validation. The results showed that the decision maker can in response to the needs for company strategy and make appropriate decision easily with the proposed model.
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