本研究利用美國政府突然關閉雲端網站Megaupload和該網站一年後重新上線的兩次事件,估計關閉雲端網站對電影票房及DVD銷售的影響。研究結果發現,Megaupload被強制關閉對電影票房有負面的影響,特別是非續集電影及上映廳數較少的電影,票房下滑的幅度較高。另外,Megaupload被強制關閉後增加了部分產品DVD的銷售量,顯示合法銷售的這些DVD產品是盜版的替代品。
In this paper, I examine the effect of copyright protection on the sales of legal products. Using the shutdown and the reopening of a cloud service piracy website (Megaupload) as two exogenous events, I estimate the effect of illegal file sharing on movie box office revenues and DVD sales. The results suggest that shutting down Megaupload had a negative effect on box office revenues, and the effect was stronger for less popular or non-sequel movies. Moreover, some DVD products’ sales increased after the shutdown of Megaupload, suggesting that these DVD purchases and illegal file downloads were substitutes.
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