民主化與本土化後 國家認同之研究 -以2012年第十三屆 總統大選首投選民為例

林孟如(Lin Meng-Ju)

指導教授 ： 李佩珊

國立中正大學/社會科學院/政治學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

摘要
台灣歷經數次重大選舉後，一般認為藍綠基本盤約為55(藍):45(綠)。儘管如此，由於2012總統大選選情格外激烈，外界普遍認為大選輸贏「只在幾萬票」。各政黨在選前評估，2012大選決勝關鍵，即是2008年總統大選後才擁有投票權的「首投族」，若以7成投票率計算，即是近90萬選票，誰取得其中過半支持，將可能改變選舉結果。由於他們的政黨傾向尚未抵定，投票取向變數較大，對選舉結果深具影響，作用可能是關鍵性的；爰「首投族」儼然成為2012總統大選藍綠參選人亟欲開拓的選票處女地。
現在的高中生與大學生，從小生長的政治社會環境與其上一輩截然不同。台灣在經歷了政治民主化的過程之後，政治體系的權威成分大量減少，民主成分迅速膨脹，人民已擁有充分參與政治的權利，表示人民有足夠的權利決定國家未來要走的路。另一方面，現在的高中生在學校接受較多的公民教育，台灣近幾年來人民對政治狂熱的風潮，更使年輕的下一代提早建立起對政治的價值、情感、態度與看法。近二十年由於台灣民主化與政治的解嚴，使得台灣人民對政治的熱誠也展現在每次的選舉中。而這些大學生，亦即2008年三月第十二任「總統」選舉投票後，到2012年1月14日前滿20歲的青年，將有一百多萬名居民跨過二十週歲的「門檻」，而成為投入2012年第十三屆總統大選成為首投選民。若往前追溯其高中求學階段，2012 總統大選首投族正好是2006年實施「普通高級中學課程暫行綱要」，亦即所謂教育鬆綁之下實施「95暫綱」後的高中學生。
本研究經訪談22位首投族發現，渠等並未如媒體或民調選前所分析年輕族群支持民進黨的比例偏高，反而提到對負面消息和不良紀錄的反感，可見前任總統涉入貪污案對擁有投票權的年輕人也有一定的影響力，甚至成為左右2012總統大選的選舉結果之關鍵因素；除了「首投族」投票行為屬於類型中的第二類(對政治較不熱衷或容易受影響)較不受影響外，國家和政黨認同對投票結果的影響力，在本屆總統大選中顯得較不明顯。
關鍵字：首投族、本土化、民主化、政治社會化、國家認同、政黨認同、95暫綱

關鍵字

國家認同 ； 95暫綱 ； 首投族 ； 政黨認同

並列摘要

Abstract
In Taiwan, it is generally thought that the approval rating of KMT and DPP is 55% to 45% after several significant elections. Yet the 2012 presidential election was so severe that the gap between the two parties was considered to be merely about tens of thousands of votes. Before the election, each party took “the first voter group”, which was formed by the young people given the suffrage after the 2008 presidential election, as the key to the victory. It would be nearly 900 thousands of votes if the voter turnout rate of the group was counted as 70%, which means that once a party obtained half of the approval of the group, it would probably make them the winner. However, the decision of the first voter group could not be easily predicted because they failed to show an obvious political orientation. As a result, the first voter group was believed to play an important role in the 2012 presidential election. It became the target by KMT and DPP to win the election.
In Taiwan, the high school students and the university students nowadays are brought up in a milieu which is very different from that of the previous generations. After the process of democratization, on the one hand, the government of Taiwan is much less authoritarian. The people of Taiwan have enough rights to participate in politics and decide the future of the country. On the other hand, the high school students receive much more citizenship education. More than that, these two decades, as a result of the democratization and the abolishment of the martial law, the great enthusiasm of Taiwanese people for politics can be easily perceived during election seasons, and this craze of politics urges the young generation to speed up their establishment of the political value, the feelings and the attitude towards politics.
After the twelfth presidential election in 2008, more than a million young people have become above the age of 20 before January 14th, 2012. They, who are mostly university students, are the members of the first voter group. They are also the students under the Temporary Guidelines for High School Curriculums of 2006.
In this research, I have interviewed with 22 members of the first voter group. It is discovered that these young voters do not tend to support DPP, which is different from the previous analysis of the media and the poll. Furthermore, they show an antipathy against the party because of its negative news these years. It seems that the bribery case of the former president casts an influence on their thoughts toward DPP, and it might even become a critical factor to sway the result of the election. Beside the unobvious voting orientation of the first voter group, which is categorized into the second group (not so enthusiastic about politics and easy to be swayed), neither the power of national identity nor that of the party identity is obviously observed in 2012 presidential election.

Key Words：
First Voter Group；Localization；Democratization；Political Socialization；National Identity；Party Identity；Temporary Guidelines for High School Curriculums

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