越南木製品產業自2005年開始飛快的成長,主要係受惠於2004 年美國對中國木製臥房家具的反傾銷裁定,大批製造商轉移至越南 設廠,迅速填補中國退出後之美國市場。 截至2008年底越南約有300家台資的木製家具廠,主要經營美 國、歐盟以及日本等出口市場,2007年和2008年出口值分別為24億 美元及28億美元。 然而對許多台商木製家具商而言,在越南未來可能的發展及其 發展的趨勢如何?本研究主要係以灰色預測理論GM(1,1)模式,並以 個案公司2008年及2009年第一季至第二季之產品的銷售數據來預 測其發展趨勢,並以個案公司為例提出結論與建議,以供越南台商 木製家具廠商做為決策之參考。
Vietnamese wood products industry since 2005 rapid growth, the main benefit from the Department of the United States in 2004 on China''s wooden bedroom furniture anti-dumping ruling, a large number of manufacturers to set up factories in Vietnam, after the rapid filling of the Chinese to withdraw from the U.S. market. As in Vietnam by the end of 2008, about 300 Taiwanese capital of wooden furniture factory, mainly engaged in the United States, European Union and Japan and other export markets, and in 2007 the value of domestic exports in 2008 were 2.4 billion U.S. dollars and 2.8 billion U.S. dollars. However, for many Taiwanese wooden plant, in Vietnam and its possible future development trend of development? In this study, the gray prediction theory GM (1,1) model, and the company in 2008 in case the amount of real exports to Forecast for year 2009 development trends, and found that the case for example the conclusions and recommendations put forward for Taiwan businessmen in Vietnam wooden furniture manufacturer of reference for decision-making.