氣候變遷資料應用於土石流衝擊與土方量之推估

Application of Climate Change Scenario Data to Assess Debris Flow Impact and Volume

吳亭燁(Tingyeh Wu) ； 李欣輯(Hsin-Chi Li) ； 陳永明(Yong-Ming Chen)

《中華水土保持學報》 48卷4期 (2017/12) Pp. 163-174

https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.201712_48(4).0002

摘要

為了解氣候變遷對土砂高潛勢區域影響，篩選濁水溪流域內40條潛勢溪流，以氣候變遷暖化情境RCP8.5經動力降尺度和偏差校正後所產製的降雨資料，由Hec-HMS模擬流量後，再以Flo-2D模擬與分析從20世紀末至21世紀末土石流衝擊及變化。結果顯示，21世紀末之土砂量為增加的趨勢，幅度約11%。氣候變遷模式結果顯示，降雨型態改變將對土石流發生有所衝擊，其差異除了表現於不同子集水區之外，在同區域內亦將因多數潛勢溪流匯入大量土砂，對中下游造成影響。

關鍵字

氣候變遷情境 ； 土石流衝擊 ； Flo-2D ； 土砂量 ； 土砂災害潛勢

並列摘要

Totally 40 debris flow torrents in the Zousui river basin were selected for numerical simulation to clarify sediment impact due to climate change. Rainfall data from the climate scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, generated through dynamic downscaling and bias correction, were used to simulate discharge through Hec-HMS and debris flow impacts through Flo-2D, as well as the variation in impact from the end of 20th century to the end of 21st century. The results indicate that total sediment impact by debris flow exhibited an increasing trend of approximately 11%. Thus, rainfall variation affects debris flow. This manifests not only among sub-catchments, but also in the same sub-catchment, in that numerous sediments from torrents import to the main flow and affect the downstream area.

並列關鍵字

Climate change scenario ； debris flow impact ； Flo-2D ； sediment volume ； sediment disaster susceptibility