氣候變遷對台灣北部地區土壤沖蝕有效降雨事件之影響

Effects of Climate Change on Effective Rainfall Events for Soil Erosion in Northern Taiwan

楊文仁(Wen-Jen Yang) ； 范正成(Jen-Chen Fan) ； 張于漢(Yu-Han Chang)

《農業工程學報》 53卷1期 (2007/03) Pp. 1-12

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.200703.0001

摘要

本文蒐集台灣北部地區主要氣象站之26年雨量資料，分析有效降雨事件之相關統計特性，並依據GISS平衡試驗之輸出值，以及IPCC所提供之SRES排放情境來模擬氣候變遷，評估未來短期、中期與長期有效降雨事件與有效雨量之變化。依據3412場有效降雨事件之分析結果顯示，最大三十分鐘降雨強度與平均降雨強度有較高的相關性，相關係數介於0.751至0.768之間。由GISS平衡試驗以及HADCM3漸變試驗之模擬結果顯示，未來氣候變遷對台灣北部地區之日有效降雨事件的影響不大，惟對月平均有效雨量有較大之影響，而大致呈現雨季增加，旱季減少的趨勢。整體而言，月平均有效雨量增加之月份及其增幅普遍大於減少之月份及其減幅，此一結果將對土壤沖蝕之防治造成負面之影響。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 溫室效應 ； 全球暖化 ； 有效降雨事件 ； 土壤沖蝕

並列摘要

In this study, rainfall data across 26 years were collected from major weather stations in northern Taiwan to analyze the statistic attributes of effective rainfall events. The variations of effective rainfall events and of effective rainfall in the short, medium and long term were evaluated using the output of the GISS equilibrium experiment and the SRES emissions scenarios of the IPCC. The analysis results of 3412 effective rainfall events show that the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensities had a good correlation with mean rainfall intensities, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.751 to 0.768. The simulation results of the GISS equilibrium experiment and the HADCM3 transition experiment show that future climate change does not have much influence on daily effective rainfall events in northern Taiwan, but has greater influence on monthly mean effective rainfall. The monthly mean effective rainfall tends to increase in the rainy season and decrease in the dry season. Generally speaking, the number of months with increased monthly mean effective rainfall and the increase of monthly mean effective rainfall in those months are both greater than the number of months with decreased monthly mean effective rainfall and the decrease of monthly mean effective rainfall in those months. This will have negative effect on the prevention of soil erosion.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Greenhouse effect ； Global warming ； Effective rainfall event ； Soil erosion