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臺灣高屏地區不同時間尺度之降雨集中指數時空分析

SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATION INDEX AT DIFFERENT TIME SCALES IN GAOPING REGION, TAIWAN

摘要


近年來,在氣候變遷的影響下,全球各區域降雨分布隨氣候的變化趨勢有所改變,而臺灣乾濕季亦是越顯分明,因而影響其水資源的可利用性。因此,歷年降雨量時間與空間分布的分析對於未來在洪水防治和當地水資源管理具有重要性。因臺灣南部乾濕季變化最為分明,本研究採用降雨集中指數(Precipitation Concentration Index,PCI)分析高屏地區16個雨量站1982年~2015年之日、季與年降雨量的變化。另外,以Mann-Kendall檢定法探討降雨量集中指數在不同之時間尺度下的變化趨勢。研究結果顯示,高屏地區在每日尺度中,每個測站的降雨均集中在較少的天數且在高屏地區東南方區域尤其明顯。在季節尺度下,顯示除了冬季之指數介於16~17之間外,大部分季節的指數均介於14~15之間,顯示降雨量呈現中等程度集中。最後,年降雨量集中指數主要介於18~25,表示降雨量極度集中且時間分布不均。另外,檢定年降雨量的結果指出整個研究區域趨勢皆為增加,且有37.5%的雨量站(16個雨量站中有6個雨量站)呈現顯著增加,但在春季有68.8%的雨量站(16個雨量站中有11個雨量站)變化趨勢為減少,而在夏季有75%的雨量站(16個雨量站中有12個雨量站)為趨勢為增加。本研究結果可應用於水資源管理和防治水災,並瞭解未來可能發生乾旱情況。

並列摘要


In recent years, climate change has altered rainfall distribution worldwide. In addition, it has made Taiwan's wet and dry seasons increasingly distinct, affecting the availability of water resources. Thus, analyses of yearly rainfall time and rainfall spatial distribution is crucial to future flood control and prevention as well as local water resource management. In Taiwan, because changes in the wet and dry seasons are most pronounced in its southern regions, this study used the precipitation concentration index (PCI) to analyze changes in the daily, seasonal, and annual rainfall between 1982 and 2015; the data analyzed were obtained from 16 rainfall stations in the Gaoping region. Additionally, the Mann-Kendall test was employed to identify changes in PCI over time. Daily results obtained from all rainfall stations showed that precipitation became more concentrated (i.e., becoming stronger and occurring in a smaller number of days), particularly in the southeastern area of the Gaoping region. Seasonal results showed that the PCI ranged from 16 to 17 in the winter and 14-15 in the other seasons, indicating moderate concentration. Yearly results showed that the PCI ranged mostly from 18 to 25, signifying extremely concentrated rainfall and nonuniform rainfall distribution. Moreover, yearly rainfall test results showed increasing rainfall trends in the overall research regions, where 37.5% (6 of 16) rainfall stations displayed significant increases. In the spring, 68.8% (11 of 16) rainfall stations showed decreasing rainfall, whereas in the summer, 75% (12 of 16) rainfall stations showed increasing rainfall. The results of this study can be used in water resource management to manage, control, and prevent floods and predict possible future droughts.

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