從「沉默螺旋」觀點探討民眾對紅衫軍事件之態度：以2006年台北市長選舉選民為例

Assessing the Attitudes toward the Red Shirt Movement from the Perspective of Spiral of Silence: The Case Study of the Voters in the 2006 Taipei Mayoral Election

陳品皓(Kenny Chen)

《復興崗學報》 102期 (2012/12) Pp. 151-172

https://doi.org/10.29857/FHKAJ.201212.0007

摘要

由於長期政黨對立衝突所造成的社會動盪不安，台灣民眾傾向避免在公開或陌生的場合談論政治或政治議題。使用台灣選舉與民主化調查2006年台北市長選舉的民調資料，本研究試圖探討台北市民對於紅衫軍倒扁議題的態度，以及他們在公開場合談論政治的意願。研究結果顯示，同意和不同意紅衫軍議題的受訪者比例相近。然而，他們大部分都不願意在公開場合談論政治。而針對不同程度政治議題表達意願的受訪者做進一步的分析發現，紅衫軍活動涉入程度以及對陳水扁清廉程度的認定，這兩者和受訪者在公眾場合談論政治議題的意願呈現正面顯著關聯。此外，報紙選舉新聞注意程度也和表達意願產生正面顯著相關。而省籍背景則和表達意願產生負面顯著相關。但是，受訪者公開場合談論政治的意願，並沒有和他們在紅衫軍議題的態度有所關聯。綜觀研究結果，本研究除了資料不足的缺陷之外，還必須面對理論適用性薄弱的問題。

關鍵字

民意 ； 沉默螺旋 ； 表達意願 ； 紅衫軍

並列摘要

Due to the social turbulence that resulted from the fierce partisan competition, the Taiwanese people usually tend to refrain from voicing their political opinions in public or in unfamiliar settings. Through the secondary analysis of the survey data on the 2006 Taipei mayoral election, the current study intended to explore how the voters in Taipei think of the issue of the Red Shirt Movement and their willingness to speak out on political affairs. The result showed there is little difference in proportion between those who agree and those who disagree with the Red Shirt Movement. Yet most of the respondents were unwilling to talk about politics in public settings. Furthermore, it was found that the extent to which people were involved in the Red Shirt Movement, the perception of then-President Shui-Bian Chen's integrity, and the amount of attention to the election news in newspaper were positively associated with respondents' willingness to speak out on political issues. Besides, respondents' ethnic background was found negatively related to their willingness to express political opinions. However, there is no significant association between respondents' attitudes toward the issue of the Red Shirt Movement and their willingness to talk about political affairs in public settings. It is apparent that, through these results, the current study has to face the deficiency both in data and in theoretical applicability.

並列關鍵字

Public Opinion ； Spiral of Silence ； Willingness to Speak Out ； the Red-Shirt Movement