糧食安全風險衡量與新脆弱性指標之建構

Assessing Risk and Creating a New Vulnerability Index in Taiwan's Food Security

顏晃平(Huang-Ping Yen) ； 吳榮杰(Rhung-Jieh Woo) ； 張靜文(Jing-Wen Chang)

《農業與經濟》 52期 (2014/06) Pp. 45-79

https://doi.org/10.6181/agec.2014.52.02

摘要

本文將從風險管理角度切入，藉由風險值分析方法與脆弱性指標建構，不但能系統性了解我國糧食安全現行或潛在的風險水準，尚可對各構面指標風險進行分解。經由實證評估結果可發現：對於超出風險值而未觀察到之潛在風險部分亦應加以注意。其次，風險值偏低指標雖然面臨的變動率風險較小，但同時隱含對該指標倚賴性偏高（如進口能源依存度、進口來源集中度）或是指標本身具固定特性（如可耕地面積），通常其潛在平均風險會較高。最後，就我國而言，糧食安全風險易受全球構面的影響，在評估時應將全球構面納入一起考量。當採用本方法進行我國糧食安全風險評估時，具有符合世界性的糧食安全宣言精神、可充分反應本國糧食安全風險實際狀況，及納入信賴機率和明確數值估算，能對糧食安全風險進行明確描述，因而可有效做為糧食安全風險評估的參考工具。

關鍵字

糧食安全 ； 脆弱性分析 ； 風險值 ； 條件風險值

並列摘要

This paper aims to measure the Taiwan's food security by using the value at risk (VaR), and try to construct the vulnerability indices. Our method is not only to assess, but also to decompose real or potential risk on the food security systematically. The results show that the potential risk beyond VaR should be more attentive. Also, the lower of VaR are much less risk, but it may be facing higher average potential risk. A global theme is easy to affect Taiwan's food security, and we must take care of these factors when assessing. Our method assessing food security is following the FAO's declaration, including probability to describe the potential risk, and truly reacting our country food security. For the above reasons, applying our method might be one of the fitting tools to assess food security in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Food security ； Vulnerability analysis ； Value at risk ； Conditional value at risk

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