土石流間接災損評估研究－以台中縣松鶴一溪為例

The Study on Indirect Damage Estimation of Debris Flow: A Case Study in Song-he Village, Taichung County

李欣輯(Hsin-Chi Li) ； 劉格非(Ko-Fei Liu)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 22卷2期 (2010/06) Pp. 159-166

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.201006_22(2).0003

摘要

2004年的敏督利及艾利颱風，造成全台共33人死亡及多數建物損毀的災情，其中因土石流災害而死亡的人數就高達10人。然而這只是土石流所造成的部份損失而已，其他如災民無處可住、災區的重建、災後經濟損失等，亦屬於土石流災害所造成的問題。因這部份的間接損失不容易估算，故常被忽略。但為了能瞭解土石流災害實際的影響，除了直接損失之外，土石流間接損失評估方法的建立亦是必要的。本研究依據經濟學的理論及相關的文獻，建立各類間接損失的評估方法，並以台中縣松鶴部落之土石流災害為例，求得該區間接損失為直接損失的1.03倍；但若只考量財產損失，間接損失更為直接損失的1.89倍。這結果顯示間接損失的重要性不亞於直接損失。因此間接災損評估模式的建立不但使土石流災損評估的方法更加完備，也有效提昇了損失估算的精確度。

關鍵字

土石流 ； 災損評估 ； 災害間接損失

並列摘要

In year 2004, typhoon Mindulle and Aere caused serious damage, approximately 33 people died and large number of buildings was collapsed in Taiwan by these events. Debris flow disasters were responsible for 10 of them. These were just the partial losses of debris flow. Most of indirect losses including homeless victims, aftermath reconstruction, and economic cost were also caused by serious debris flow. It is no doubt that developing a method focuses on assessing indirect losses to show real effects caused by debris flow is necessary. By adopting the loss definition of economics and disaster related references to formulate indirect losses assessment method will be shown in this paper. The method was applied to Song-He village located in Taichung County as an example which shows indirect losses was 1.03 times the value of the direct losses. Considering only the property losses by adopting this method shows indirect losses was 1.89 times the value of the direct losses. From the above outcomes the indirect loss should be taken into account while assessing the losses after disastrous event. The indirect losses assessment method would enhance debris flow loss assessment not only with higher accuracy but also more integrity.

並列關鍵字

debris flow ； disaster assessment ； disaster indirect loss