應用模糊數學於高層集合住宅投資開發可行性評估之研究

A Study of the Application of the Fuzzy Mathematics in the Valuation Structure of Investment and Development Feasibility for High-Rise Housing

楊龍士(Lung-Shih Yang)

《建築學報》 37期 (2001/08) Pp. 1-19

摘要

「住」為人類之基本需求之一，住宅之開發實為都市發展之主要動力，惟住宅之特性不同於一般商品，導致住宅市場供需難以達成均衡，住宅問題油然而生，解決住宅供需之問題亦為政府施政之主要課題。然而在住宅供需不均之今日，屬於住宅主要供給者之民間建築投資業者於投資開發興建住宅時，仍鮮少進行完整之投資開發可行性評估之工作，進而提供大量之住宅商品，導致市場之惡性循環。有鑑於此，本研究提出一套住宅投資開發可行性評估架構，冀能提供建築投資業者於投入住宅市場之前有一合理且完整之決策依據。而進行住宅市場分析時最主要之課題為如何將不確定性因素加以量化，並加入分析過程中進行分析。本研究運用針對問題之不確定性所發展出之模糊數學於解決因素量化之問題，並以模糊綜合評判與模糊貼近度等模糊數學之分析方法進行可行性之評估分析。

關鍵字

模糊理論 ； 市場分析 ； 產品定位 ； 財務分析 ； 風險分析

並列摘要

Habitation is one of the base demands for human beings and the development of habitation is the most influential factor in urban evolution. However, because the characteristics of housing are different from other general properties, it usually difficult to reach the balance of demands and supplies in the housing market and consequently leads to the housing problems. So, how to solve the questions of the demand and supply of housing is government's important task. Facing the unbalanced situation of the demand and supply in today's housing market, the construction investors are still providing large quantity of housings and result in the vicious circle in housing market. Therefore, this study has offered a valuation structure for the feasibility of investment and development in such for housing as multifaceted commodities, and hopefully this structure can serve as a decision references for the construction investors.
Therefore, the most important problem is how to measure the uncertain factors and put them in the analysis processing when we are to analyze the housing market. This study has used the fuzzy mathematics to solve the problem of factor measurements, and used some analytic method, such as fuzzy mathematics, to evaluate their feasibility.

並列關鍵字

Fuzzy Set ； Membership ； Market Analysis ； Product Positioning ； Finance Analysis ； Risk Simulation Analysis

參考文獻

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