各國旅遊導向成長假說之驗證

本研究以內生成長模型為基礎並應用動態GMM追蹤資料模型來檢視世界各國旅遊導向成長假說之議題。本文除了以旅遊密度進行分群樣本的追蹤資料因果關係外，模型也考慮國家特性指標（所得水準、區域），以準確估計各國旅遊發展對經濟成長影響的重要性。本研究發現具有高旅遊密度、低所得的非洲國家，普遍支持旅遊導向經濟成長假說，這些國家的政府應致力於旅遊產業的開發與提供；相對而言，擁有低旅遊密度、中高所得的歐美國家則不存在旅遊導向經濟成長假說，旅遊發展無法促進經濟成長，政府應採取較保守的旅遊產業政策。實證結果驗證內生成長理論的研究觀點。

關鍵字

旅遊發展；經濟成長；動態GMM追蹤資料

並列摘要

This paper used endogenous growth theory to apply a dynamic panel GMM model to test the tourism-led growth hypothesis. The data was divided into different categories according to how strong the incentive was to engage in tourism. In addition, specific detailed of countries (income, region) were also used to investigate how important the development of tourism was to economic growth. The empirical resulted indicate that, for African countries, for which GDP was lower while the incentive to engage in tourism was higher than for other countries, the tourism-led growth hypothesis was significantly supported. Therefore, the respective governments should make effort to develop tourism to achieve their economic growth goals. By contrast, there did not exist a tourism-led growth hypothesis when GDP was higher and the incentive to engage in tourism was lower than in other countries. In such cases, the governments could adopt a more conservative tourism policy. The resulted of the study support the endogenous growth theory.

並列關鍵字

tourism development ； economic growth ； dynamic panel GMM model

參考文獻

Brau, R., Lanza, A., and Pigliaru, F., How Fast Are The Tourism Countries Growing？The Cross-Country Evidence. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, 2003, Working Paper No. 85

Google Scholar

Brau, R., Lanza, A., and Pigliaru, F., How Fast Are Small Tourism Countries Growing? The 1980-2003 Evidence. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, 2007, Working Paper No. 1

Google Scholar

Eugenio-Martin, J., Morales, N., and Scarpa, R., Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, 2004, Working Paper No. 26