2003年美國亞太戰略對台海安全環境之影響

U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategy vs. the Taiwan Strait Security Posture in 2003

周力行(Li-Shine Chou)

《全球政治評論》 2期 (2003/04) Pp. 1-29

摘要

近年共軍積極地推展現代化，並經常在沿岸海域實施大規模演訓，動用之裝備多屬現代化高科技產品，演訓課目以確保制海權和對付美航母戰鬥群的介入台海，緩阻美國介入台海的影響，及考驗以軍事手段解決台灣的戰略戰術問題。
目前台海安全狀況並無明顯不均衡現象，但美國防部評估在2005年之復，台灣難以防衛中國大陸越來越強大的彈道飛彈攻擊能力，因而呼籲應及早因應。近年台美軍事交流較以往更緊密，其中包括擴大軍事合作，美軍指派軍官觀摩我三軍聯合軍事演習，其在「協助台灣防衛」的程度可能暫先指派美軍顧問在軟體和技術上協助台灣，讓國軍短期內發揮美軍已售台武器裝備戰力，為將來進一步整合指管通情系統預作準備。
不過，臺海兩岸最近四、五年來正從事前所未有的軍備競賽，美中兩國仍有可能出現重大衝突，台灣夾在中間，堪稱在火線上。
未來美國小布希政府在亞太兵力部署、「飛彈防禦系統」建構等作為，對台灣及亞洲的發展會帶來什麼樣的影響？是我們要思考的重要課題。

關鍵字

安全環境 ； 潛在敵人 ； 本土安全 ； 動亂弧狀地帶 ； 戰略嚇阻與防禦 ； 前進兵力部署 ； 不對稱威脅

並列摘要

Chinese aspirations to become a great power in the 21st century have numerous regional implications. Beijing claims to seek a peaceful international climate so as to concentrate on domestic development. The Chinese government asserts that it is devoting itself to its modernization drive, and the country needs and cherishes dearly an environment of long-term international peace, especially a favorable peripheral environment. China characterizes its efforts to build the most powerful military force in the region as ”pursuing a national defense policy that is defensive in nature, and its national defense construction (resources and funds) is in a subordinate position to and in service of economic construction.” Modernization of the Chinese economy is the key to China's future as a great nation and a great power.
The nature, scope, and viability of the strategic relationship between PRC and the United States have emerged as leading security policy issues. Among the many reasons for this are: China's evidently growing defense budget and its military modernization campaign; its often threatening rhetoric over Taiwan; its reputed espionage activities; and disputes over collateral security issues, such as China's continuing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
China's military modernization campaign, its growing regional ambitions, and manifest U.S.-PRC strategic divergence in important areas raise a number of fundamental questions for the United States. The United States must improve its understanding of China's increasing capabilities, security posture, and strategic intentions. Strategic planners must systematically explore the underlying concept and application of deterrence in the context of China. The fractious domestic debate over the nature and extent of the U.S. defense commitment to Taiwan may contribute to dangerous misperceptions by China, thereby heightening instability. Accordingly, the President and Congress should work together, perhaps in the form of a senior level policy review group, to develop an effective compact in this area.

並列關鍵字

regional implications ； strategic capabilities ； modernization programs ； strategic divergence ； deterrent relationship