Professionally Biased: Misestimations of Driving Speed, Journey Time and Time-savings among Taxi and Car Drivers

Eyal Peer ； Lidor Solomon

《Judgment and Decision Making》 7卷2期 (2012/03) Pp. 165-172

並列摘要

People make systematic and predictable mistakes regarding estimations of average speed and journey time. In addition, people have been shown to commit a time-saving bias by underestimating the time that can be saved when increasing from a low speed and overestimating the time that can be saved when increasing from a relatively high speed. These misestimations have been shown to relate to biases in judgments of the speed required to arrive at a specific time and to choosing unduly high speed. Professional drivers, such as taxi drivers, might be less susceptible to these biases due to their increased driving experience. In the current study, we interviewed taxi drivers about a journey they were currently making and examined their estimations of journey time, average speed and time savings. Compared to a group of non-professional car drivers, taxi drivers showed the same considerable misestimations of driving speed, journey time and time savings as non-professionals. However, overestimations of time savings among taxi drivers were smaller than those made by car drivers. We discuss the practical significance of these findings.

並列關鍵字

speed estimations ； time estimations ； time-saving bias ； speed choices ； professional drivers