Food Security in the Asia-Pacific: Malthus, Limits and Environmental Challenges

亞太地區糧食安全性：馬爾薩斯理論、限制及環境挑戰

Colin D Butler

《Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition》 18卷4期 (2009/12) Pp. 577-584

https://doi.org/10.6133/apjcn.2009.18.4.18

摘要

此篇文章是討論全球農業、糧食安全性及伴隨的營養與人口健康面對的日益高漲的挑戰之兩篇文章中的第一篇。近來全球糧食安全性的惡化情況已讓每個專家都感到訝異。雖然整體來看，亞太地區於目前的糧食供應不差，但無論糧食安全在近期內是否變得更好，對於中長期的糧食安全性不該自滿。這篇文章從馬爾薩斯主義者及樂觀主義者的長期辯爭間探究這個議題。敘述兩位領先的農業專家在過去十年明顯的立場改變。他們近年來的著作反映了強化馬爾薩斯理論，而1990年代的著作卻遏制馬爾薩斯理論。本文的結論是，需要更多的信任給予悲觀的立場，以避免它成為真實的。第二篇文章則是將重點放在未來亞太地區糧食安全性的五個相互關聯的挑戰。這些挑戰可被概念化為途徑，引導出顯著的馬爾薩斯悲觀情境。這些機制為（1）氣候的改變（2）水資源的缺乏（3）對流層中臭氧的污染（4）磷及常規石油的急迫短缺（5）未來的人口流離、衝突及管理不善間的可能交互作用。文章的結論是，要使糧食安全性永續地改善，需要從社會對環境的施為、人口成長、農業研究及分配的權利、機會與配額來做徹底的改變。

關鍵字

全球糧食安全性 ； 馬爾薩斯 ； 聯合國糧農組織 ； 集中餵養動物作業 ； 成長限制

並列摘要

This is the first of two articles on the steepening challenges which confront global agriculture, food security and hence nutrition and population health. The recent deterioration in global food security has caught most experts by surprise. While the Asia Pacific region as a whole has so far fared reasonably well, there should be no complacency about medium to long term food security in the region, whether or not food security improves in the near future. The first paper places this debate in the context of the long-standing arguments between Malthusianists and optimists. The apparent reversal of position in the last decade of two leading agricultural experts is discussed. Their recent writings reflect intensified Malthusian concerns curbed in their writings from the 1990s. The paper concludes that far more credence needs to be given to the pessimistic position in order to avoid it becoming reality. The second paper focusses on five interrelated challenges to future food security in the Asia Pacific. These may be conceptualised as pathways by which pessimistic Malthusian scenarios become manifest. The mechanisms are (1) climate change, (2) water scarcity, (3) tropospheric ozone pollution, (4) impending scarcity of phosphorus and conventional oil and (5) the possible interaction between future population displacement, conflict and poor governance. The article concludes that a sustainable improvement in food security requires a radical transformation in society's approach to the environment, population growth, agricultural research and the distribution of rights, opportunities and entitlements.

並列關鍵字

global food security ； Malthus ； FAO ； CAFOs ； limits to growth