特殊教育長期追蹤資料庫失敗樣本分析研究－以96學年度調查資料爲例

Analysis of Nonresponse Bias with the 2007 Survey Data in Special Needs Education Longitudinal Study (SNELS)

鄭淑芬(Shu-Fen Cheng) ； 王天苗(Tien-Miau Wang) ； 洪永泰(Yung-Tai Hung) ； 蔡欣玶(Shin-Ping Tsai)

《特殊教育學報》 33期 (2011/06) Pp. 125-149

https://doi.org/10.6768/JSE.201106.0125

摘要

本研究主要目的在檢視「特殊教育長期追蹤資料庫」失敗樣本對推論可能造成偏頗的影響因素。以該資料庫民國96學年度學前及國小三歲、五歲、小一和小三等四組4,873名有效樣本資料爲對照，追蹤調查隨機抽取之527名失敗樣本在性別、居住地區、父親教育程度、母親教育程度、障礙類別、安置型態、障礙影響程度、家長參與程度及學習進步程度等九個變項上的情形，以卡方考驗和多變量邏輯斯迴歸分析進行失敗樣本和有效樣本在這些標竿指標上的差異考驗。分析結果發現，四組失敗樣本與有效樣本之間的差異主要在家長參與程度、障礙影響程度和學習進步程度三項，其中，尤其以家長參與程度爲最大關鍵因素。

關鍵字

失敗樣本 ； 無反應偏誤 ； 邏輯斯迴歸分析

並列摘要

The purpose of this study was to examine nonresponse bias in a large-scale survey, the Special Needs Education Longitudinal Study, which interviewed special needs children's parents, teachers and school administrators. Data analyses included a comparison between the originally selected sample and the follow-up survey for unit-nonresponses on the demographic characteristics and variables related to learning outcomes. The results revealed that except for the 5-year-old sample, there was no significant difference between these two groups on demographic variables for the 3-year-old, the first-grade, and the third-grade samples; on the contrary, the variables related to learning outcomes were the main causes accounting for the nonresponses. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to estimate the odds of correlates of nonresponse, including demographic characteristics and variables related to learning outcomes. Again, the results demonstrated that parental involvement, a variable related to learning outcomes, was a significant predictor of nonresponse bias across 3-year-olds to 3rd graders. None of the demographic characteristics was statistically significant. For the pre-school stage, except for parental involvement, influence of disabilities was another index to predict nonresponse. For the elementary stage, learning progress was an additional key variable to portend nonresponse. The findings suggest that the variables related to learning outcomes, rather than demographic characteristics, may be the important sources of nonresponse bias in the Special Needs Education Longitudinal Study.

並列關鍵字

unit-nonresponse ； nonresponse bias ； logistic regression

參考文獻

劉正(2006)。補習在臺灣的變遷、效能與階層化。教育研究集刊。52(4)，1-33。

林彩玉、洪永泰、鄭宇庭(2004)。抽樣調查中投票意向問題無反應因素之研究。調查研究─方法與應用。15，31-60。

陳光輝、劉從葦(2006)。臺灣選舉與民主化調查固定樣本（TEDS panel）之代表性探討。選舉研究。13(2)，75-116。

許勝懋、洪永泰(2003)。「2001 年臺灣選舉與民主化調查研究」抽樣設計：分層效果、抽樣誤差與設計效果之分析。選舉研究。10(2)，59-61。

洪永泰(2003)。原始樣本、替代樣本、與追蹤樣本的比較：「2001年臺灣選舉與民主化調查研究」訪問失敗問題的探討。選舉研究。10(2)，37-58。