不同的物候模式應用於阿里山公路沿線地區山櫻花開花時間之預測

COMPARISON OF PHENOLOGICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE FLOWERING DATES OF TAIWAN CHERRY (PRUNUS CAMPANULATA) ALONG ALISHAN ROAD AT DIFFERENT ALTITUDES

邱祈榮(Chyi-Rong Chiou) ； 劉恩妤(En-U Liu)

《中華林學季刊》 51卷4期 (2018/12) Pp. 331-346

摘要

本研究於2015-2017年間，監測阿里山公路沿線地區不同海拔樣區的山櫻花花期，將調查資料測試各種物候模式的適用性，及模式參數的調整，找出台灣地區預測山櫻花開花最適用的物候模式。物候調查結果，各海拔山櫻花花芽開裂時間為每年1月初至2月初，且2015及2016年底的暖冬現象，伴隨著2016及2017年初，海拔600及1000 m地區的花芽開裂及盛開時間較2015年初延後6-14天，但開花時間延遲現象不發生在海拔1400及1800 m樣區，此開花時間的變化正好可用於測試各種物候模式。物候模式測試結果，由於山櫻花為溫帶落葉樹種，花芽需要冬季低溫才能解除休眠，僅藉由生長積溫來預測開花時間的溫時模式ForcTT model，無法解釋暖冬造成低海拔地區開花時間延後的現象。本研究提出的冷積模式Subtropical model 15適合評估阿里山公路沿線海拔600-1800 m地區山櫻花的冷積需求量，以預測花芽開裂的時間。冷積模式應用結果顯示，暖冬造成低海拔地區冷積量明顯降低，冷積需求量不足，可能是造成低海拔地區山櫻花開花時間延後的重要因素。因此，在花盛開的日期預測上，先利用冷積模式Subtropical model 15評估花芽開裂期，然後再結合溫時模式ForcTT model，將提升花期預測的準確度。

關鍵字

山櫻花 ； 開花時間 ； 物候模式 ； 暖冬

並列摘要

The objective of this study was to establish suitable phenological model for predict flowering time of Taiwan cherry (Prunus campanulata). The pheno-meteorological monitoring stations were set up along Alishan road at different altitudes, and phenological data was used to test the performance of a number of chilling/forcing model for explaining Taiwan cherry flowering time in 2015-2017. According to temperature records of pheno-meteorological monitoring stations, warmer winter resulted in delaying floral bud burst and full bloom date about 6-14 days in January 2016 and 2017 at monitoring stations located at 600 and 1000 m elevation, but not at 1400 and 1800 m elevation. Thermal Time model, which only considers the accumulated forcing temperature, such as ForcTT model, didn't explain the impact of warm winter on delayed fl oral bud burst at lower elevation area. In contrast, Subtropical model 15, new development chilling model by our study, performed well. The results indicated that delaying bud burst date was resulted from insufficient chilling of buds at lower elevation area. Therefore, quantifying chilling requirement through Subtropical model 15 is crucial to predict fl oral bud burst date of Taiwan cherry in the future under global warming. In aspect of predicting full bloom date, chilling/forcing alone cannot explain full bloom date, but the combinations of chilling model (Subtropical model 15) and forcing model (ForcTT model) was suggested to improve the accuracy of the flowering time.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan cherry ； flowering date ； phenological model ； warm winter