颱風運行之基本原理與七十二小時路徑預報

The Basic Principles of Typhoon Movement and 72-hr Typhoon Track Forecasting

王崇岳(Griffith C. Y. Wang)

《大氣科學》 10卷1期 (1983/03) Pp. 87-98

摘要

按大氣運動方程，可導引控制颱風運行之基本力－外力與內力－。外力乃為氣象人員所熟知之駛流，而內力則與地球自轉有直接關係。颱風環流與其中心軸對稱時，運行常穩定；但若環流為非軸對稱，則有向左或向右偏向、加、減速等現象，使正常之颱風路徑預報，有嚴重之誤差。當颱風四周之駛流微弱，颱風路徑時有向左或右旋轉與蛇行等特殊現象。四十八小時數值天氣預報圖中，其中緯度區預測圖型相當可靠，可作為七十二小時颱風路徑預報之重要參考資料。

並列摘要

Using the equations of motion we can analyze the movement of typhoons such as a steady straight forward motion, acceleration or deceleration, right or left turn, loop-ing and wavy tracks in detail. The strength of steering flow is determined by the height difference at two pairs of points, north-south and west-east, each point with a distance of 10 degrees of latitude from the typhoon center.When 700-mb data in the equatorial area are unavailabIe; the 700-mb heights at the points N, north, and R, ninety degrees to the right of typhoon track, each point with a distance of 10 degrees of latitude from the typhoon center, are used to determine the movement of typhoons.The 500-mb numerical prognostic chart, a product of the 6-level Fine-mesh Limited Area Model, is used as a guide for 72-hr typhoon track forecasting.