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利用貝氏信賴網絡分析河川揚塵發生率

Analysis of Aeolian Dust Incidence using Bayesian Belief Network Models

Abstracts


河川揚塵受料源、驅動力、地表狀況,和人類活動等因素,影響其發生率。為探討影響揚塵各不同因子及其交互作用,需考量各因子與交互關係之不確定性,方能達到有效的發生率評估。本研究蒐集2015年至2019年大甲溪下游氣象與空氣品質監測資料、土壤分析場資料與衛星影像等,以PM_(10)濃度為預測目標,建立貝氏信賴網絡。分別以PM_(10)濃度125μg⁄m^3為門檻值和不同PM_(10)濃度分級為預測目標,模式訓練後交叉驗證與測試結果,整體正確率皆達97%和86%以上,具有良好預測能力。

Parallel abstracts


Multiple factors influence the incidence of aeolian dust, including dust sources, driving forces, soil and land surface conditions, and human activities. This study investigated these influencing factors and their interactions and considered the uncertainty among these factors to effectively predict the incidence of aeolian dust. In this study, we focused on dust incidence in the downstream area of the Dajia River, Taiwan, and collected various types of data (i.e., weather and air quality monitoring data, high-resolution land data assimilation system, HRLDAS, data, and satellite images) to construct Bayesian belief network models for predicting the PM_(10) concentration. The PM_(10) concentration of 125 μg⁄m^3 was set as the threshold, and was discretized into four levels, in the two proposed Bayesian belief network models, respectively. The cross-validation and testing of the models revealed an overall prediction accuracy of >97% and >86% for river dust incidence and PM_(10) concentration, respectively. The results suggest that the models can produce accurate and credible predictions of the river dust incidence and PM_(10) concentration.

References


林昭遠、林政侑 (2012),「濁水溪下游河段揚塵發生之影響因素」,中華水土保持學報,43(4),323-331。(Lin, C.Y. and Lin, C.Y. (2012). “Factors affecting aeolian dust emission in the downstream of Zhuo-shui River.” Journal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation, 43(4), 323-331. (in Chinese))
林昭遠、張明倫、莊智瑋 (2009),「濁水溪河口揚塵對大氣懸浮微粒(PM10)影響之研究」,水土保持學報,41(3),285-296。(Lin, C.Y., Chang, M.L., and Chuan, C.W. (2009). “Effects of aeolian dust on the fine airborne parti-cles (PM10) at the estuary of Zhuoshui River.” Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 41(3), 285-296. (in Chinese))
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林德貴、劉昱麟、黃隆明、劉文宗 (2011),「利用 FDM模式分析河床揚塵-以大甲溪為例」,水土保持學報,43(3),239-258。(Lin, D.G., Liu, Y.L., Huang, L.M., and Liu, W.T. (2011). “Analysis of fugitive dust from riverbed using FDM-A case study of Ta-Chia River.” Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 43(3), 239-258. (in Chinese))
夏會娟、孔維靜、孫建新、侯利萍 (2018),「基於 MODIS NDVI 的遼河保護區成立前後植被覆蓋時空動態研究」,生態學報,38(15),5434-5442。(Xia, H., Kong, W., Sun, J., and Houl, L. (2018). “Spatial-temporal dynamics of veg-etation cover before and after establishment of Liaohe river reserve based on NODIS NDVI.”, Acta Ecologica Sinica, 38(15), 5434-5442. (in Chinese))

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