暖化下設計暴雨之變化及其不確定性來源之量化分析

本研究探討氣候變遷設計暴雨之變化及其各種不確定性分析。使用國內TCCIP產製之IPCC第六次評估報告全球氣候模式之統計降尺度日雨量推估資料，評估暖化下重現期設計暴雨之變化，並透過變異數分析量化比較各種不確定性來源，包括各種全球氣候模式、排放情境以及水文機率分布設定。本研究結果指出，全台8縣市各五公里代表網格之百年重現期設計暴雨改變率之所有全球氣侯模式系集平均，於全球暖化程度2°C與4°C下1日降雨延時之結果分別為0%～43%與11%～66%，8縣市網格之平均結果則分別為19%、37%，於全球暖化程度2°C與4°C下2日降雨延時之結果分別為4%～29%與20%～64%，8縣市網格之平均結果則分別為27%、43%；三種不確定性來源之貢獻程度則以全球氣候模式為最大因素，其相對於總不確定性之平均貢獻度高達58%。

Keywords

氣候變遷；設計暴雨；不確定性

Parallel abstracts

The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes of design rainfall storm due to climate change. The study used IPCC AR6 projection data, which was statistically-downscaled daily rainfall produced by TCCIP, to quantitatively assess the changes of specific return-period design rainfall intensity under global warming by hydrological frequency analysis. Additionally, analysis of variance was used to quantify and compare various sources of uncertainty, including different global climate models, emissions scenarios, and hydrological assumptions of probability density functions. The results had shown that the multi-model ensemble means of changed rates of 1-day design rainfall for 100-year return period in 8 counties cross Taiwan were respectively increased 0% ~ 43% and 11% ~ 66% under global warming level 2 °C and 4 °C. The average results of the 8 counties are 19% and 37% under global warming level 2 °C and 4 °C, respectively. For 2-day rainfall duration, the results of the changed rates of design rainfall in 8 counties were respectively increased 4% ~ 29% and 20% ~ 64% under global warming level 2 °C and 4 °C. The average results of the 8 counties are 27% and 43% under global warming level 2 °C and 4 °C, respectively. Among the three sources of uncertainty, the contribution from global climate models is the largest, with an average contribution being up to 58%.

Parallel keywords

Climate change ； Design rainfall storm ； Uncertainty

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