因果關係及其反事實考量：從哲學思辯到科學方法

本文主要將探究因果關係及其反事實考量在概念及議題上的演進，呈現出一個從哲學思辯演進到科學方法的面向。這個演進的面向，首先將探究從古希臘時期、近代哲學時期、以及當代分析哲學中，幾個具代表性的因果關係概念，並呈現出反事實考量在因果關係中，佔據核心地位的演進過程，以及尚待解決的相關議題。其次，將說明科學中以反事實考量為基礎的因果關係，並著重在科學中對因果推理的探究如何回應哲學文獻中的相關議題。最後，將指出一些哲學以及科學中尚在發展中的因果關係議題。

關鍵字

因果關係；因果推理；反事實思考；相關性；因果性；潛在干擾因子；亞理斯多德；休姆；康德；路易士

並列摘要

This paper will focus on exploring the evolution of the concepts and issues surrounding causation and counterfactual considerations, presenting a progression from philosophical inquiry to scientific methods. First, it will examine several representative concepts of causation from ancient Greek philosophy, modern philosophy, and contemporary analytic philosophy, highlighting the evolving central role of counterfactual considerations in causation and the related unresolved issues. Second, it will explain how counterfactual considerations form the basis for causation in science, and emphasize how scientific inquiries into causal inference address relevant issues from philosophical literature. Finally, it will point out some ongoing issues in causation that are still under development in both philosophy and science.

並列關鍵字

Causation ； Causal Inference ； Counterfactual Thinking ； Correlation ； Causality ； Potential Confounder ； Aristotle ； Kant ； Hume ； Lewis

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