夷狄無百年之運－運數論與夷夏觀的分析

Non-Han Regimes Never Last over One Hundred Years: Analyzing a Prophecy from the Perspective of Sino-steppe Relationship

方震華(Fang, Cheng-hua)

《臺大歷史學報》 60期 (2017/12) Pp. 159-191

https://doi.org/10.6253/ntuhistory.2017.60.04

摘要

在中國歷史上出現過一些以「運數」解釋政權興衰的說法。此類運數之說，多半針對個別政權而產生，流傳一段時間後，就為人所淡忘。不過，「夷狄無百年之運」恐怕是其中的例外。此一理念出現於南宋後期，後來廣泛被明代官員和文人引用，其影響力更及於中國之外的地區。就史實而言，外族政權存在的時間長短互異，並無規律可言，為何到了南宋，會有人認為夷狄政權無法成立超過一百年？本文從分析「百年之運」一詞的意涵衍變入手，指出「夷狄無百年之運」的說法是因金朝的衰亡，而在南宋後期出現。南宋士人藉此運數之說，強調外夷政權不受上天庇祐，只有正統所在的南宋才能長期延續。元朝雖滅南宋，但並未干涉士人繼續傳播尊中國、貶外夷的觀念。等到元末大亂，朱元璋以「胡無百年之運」進行宣傳，指蒙元的運數已盡，漢人將重掌政權，促成此一理念在明代的流行。滿洲人入主中國後，雖力圖打壓漢人的夷夏觀，仍不足以阻止「夷狄無百年之運」說法的流傳，清末的革命運動仍藉此宣稱滿清氣數已盡。「夷狄無百年之運」說法之所以能夠持續且廣泛的流傳，並非此說符合中國與外夷互動的「歷史規律」，而是因為此理念具有普遍性意涵，可在不同時代被政治人物利用；至於歷史真相為何，傳述此說者並不在意。因此，「夷狄無百年之運」說法在中國的流傳，正是政治宣傳影響歷史論述的一個實例。

關鍵字

運數 ； 夷夏觀 ； 南宋 ； 朱元璋 ； 元

並列摘要

In Chinese history, many historic interpretations were given after the end of each dynasty, which described the fall of a regime as the result of its predicted destiny rather than analyzing the substantial factors causing the dynastic extinction. This kind of prophecy usually became less popular after a short period, as later historians would never mention it in their writings. However, the concept that regimes ruled by non-Han tribes never last over one hundred years is an exception. This idea appeared around the 1230s, as the Southern Song literati enthusiastically witnessed the decline of their long term rival-the Jin Dynasty, which established by the Jurchens. Although the Jurchens once controlled northern China by their strong military forces, some Song literati argued, their state came to end in only one hundred years, contrasting the fact that the Song Dynasty which obtains the ＂orthodoxy＂ still exists. The extinction of Jin Dynasty provided the Song people confidence in the Heavenly support, and concluded a principle that no non-Han regime would ever obtain the good fortune to exist for over one hundred years. This statement became even more popular after the Yuan dynasty, as the rebellions overturned the Mongol regime during the time its rule over the whole China persisted less than one hundred years. In particular, the founder of the Ming Dynasty, Zhu Yuanzhang, used this concept for political propaganda to convince people that the decline of the Yuan Dynasty was inevitable. Thus, political propaganda is the primary factor causing this prophecy to last for a long time, and this fact also demonstrates how political agenda influenced historical discourse.

並列關鍵字

destiny ； sino-steppe relationship ； Southern Song Dynasty ； Zhu Yuanzhang ； Yuan Dynasty

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