大陸實施債轉股的政策分析

中共當局深知欲深化國企改革，必須要解決企業的債務問題、改變企業的經濟管理機制、健全金融體制、解決銀行的不良資產、並重建銀行與企業的信貸關係，故有債轉股政策的出台，以及金融資產管理公司的產生。本文以政策分析的研究途徑、分就債轉股政策產生的背景、政策的選擇與形成、政策執行的具體措施、政策的效果及可能風險，逐一分析，來探就大陸實施債轉股政策可能代帶來的效應。若照國際上不良資產回收率10%~23%的標準，以大陸一九九九年十二月底所簽定的債轉股金額為835億人民幣來看，只能打銷不到200億的壞帳，不但無法消除目前銀行近兆原的壞帳，就連每年新增的500至800億的壞帳，也是杯水車薪。對銀行而言，被剝離的不良貸款總額的51%，加上新的虧損的增加，如利息的減少，顯見債轉股政策的實施，對減少不良資產的效用是有限的。從金融資產管理公司的角度來看，由於制度的設計，使其無法按照市場機制來運作，既無自主權、又無強烈的獲利動機，將使資產回收的目標難以達成。不過，從試點的角度觀之，藉着債轉股政策的實施，將促使金融體系人才的養成、配套制度的建立，使其資本市場能逐漸成長，長期的效果應不容忽視。

關鍵字

債轉股；金融資產管理公司；不良資產；銀企關係

並列摘要

In order to further implement the state-owned enterprises reform the credit relationship between enterprises and banks must be rebuilt. The debt-equity swap policy and asset-management cooperations (AMCs) came into existence for the purpose of releasing the debt burden of the enterprises and reducing the pressure from banks’ dead loans. This paper attempts to use a policy analysis approach to explain the background of the debt-equity swap policy, as well as the policy choice, formation, and implementation. This approach is also used to evaluate the policy impact and possible risks. After using such a policy analysis to analyze this policy from the role of enterprises, banks, and AMCs respectively, the author finds that the impact of this policy would not be effective in the short-run. However, in the long run, the implementation of this policy will foster human capital for the capital market and finance system. That effect should not be neglected.