監造執行模式與決標類別因子對標案標價與預算比率的影響分析

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUPERVISION EXECUTION MODE AND AWARD CATEGORY FACTOR ON THE BID PRICE AND BUDGET RATIO

晁立中(Li-Chung Chao) ； 廖信傑(Shinn-Jye Liaw)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 32卷7期 (2020/11) Pp. 645-657

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.202011_32(7).0007

摘要

公共工程預算來自稅收，精準的標預比預測，對預算執行的掌握很重要。本研究從政府採購網站收集已公告標案進行分析，以預算、工期、工程類別、施工位置、監造執行模式與決標類別因子，進行逐步迴歸分析。結果發現只有工程類別、監造執行模式與決標類別因子確實影響標預比。以實際案例進行預測，監造執行模式與決標類別的加入，可縮小預測的誤差而增加精度。就同一件工程案，決標階段採用評選方式、施工階段採用委託監造，與採用最低價決標、自行監造方式，預測結果，標預比相差0.062（即6.2%），可見，監造執行模式與決標類別因子對標預比影響重大。

關鍵字

標預比 ； 監造執行模式 ； 決標類別 ； 多元逐步迴歸

並列摘要

Public works budgets come from taxation, and accurate pre-predictive forecasts are important for mastery of budget execution. This study collects the published bids from the government procurement website for analysis, and conducts stepwise regression analysis with budget, construction period, project category, construction location, supervision execution mode and award category factors. The results show that only the project category, supervision execution mode and award category do affect the bid price and budget ratio. Forecasting with actual cases, the addition of supervision execution mode and award categories can reduce the error of prediction and increase the accuracy. Forecasting with actual cases, the addition of supervision execution mode and award categories can reduce the error of prediction and increase the accuracy.

並列關鍵字

price and budget ratio ； supervision execution mode ； award ； multiple regression

參考文獻

Chao, L.-C.,Kuo, C.-P.(2016).Probabilistic approach to determining overhead-cum-markup Rate in Bid Prics.Procedia Engineering.164,243-250.

Chao, L.-C.,Kuo, C.-P.(2018).Neural-network-centered approach to determining lower limit of combined rate of overheads and markup.Journal of Constrution Engineering and Management.144(2),04017117–1-04017117-8.

Chao, L.-C.,Liaw, S.-J.(2019).Fuzzy logic model for determining minimum overheads- cum-markup rate.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.145(4),0419008–1-0419008–10.

Carr, R. I.(1982).General bidding model.Journal of Construction Division, ASCE.108(CO4),639-650.

Irtishad Ahmad, Issam Minkarah(1988).Questionnaire survey on bidding in construction.Journal of Management in Engineering.4(3),229-243.