摘要
本文主要從人口學視角探討香港和台灣的低生育率的模式及其成因。為了全面了解生育率的變化模式，我們同時研究了時期生育率和終身生育率的變化趨勢。我們設計了一種簡潔的方法來測度補償性生育對生育率的影響，並採用了Bonggarts-Feeney's(1998)和Kohler-PhiliP0v's(2001)兩種方法分離出自1976年後生育延遲對於時期生育率的影響。在分析終身生育率走向的基礎上，我們推測了1950至1960年代出生的婦女的終身生育率。我們的分析顯示，與歐洲類似，生育延遲在香港和台灣的生育率下降過程中扮演著很重要的角色。香港和台灣的低生育率模式雖然類似，但也有很大的差異。台灣的低生育率模式與歐洲的極其相似，但是香港有著自己的特點而不僅僅是歐洲模式的延續。在生育延遲的影響已經下降到很低的情況下，香港的生育率在1990年代進一步下降。1960年代出生的婦女的終身生育率和調整後的1990年代的時期生育率都處於超低水準，這說明香港的生育率是真正的低生育率而不僅僅是生育延遲的伴生現象。如果沒有有效的促進生育的政策，香港有望在長期內面臨低生育率現象；在不久的將來，台灣可能會步香港的後塵而面臨香港現時的生育模式。
並列摘要
This paper aims to study the patterns and causes of low fertility in Hong Kong and Taiwan from demographic perspective. Both period and cohort fertilities are examined. For period fertility, the effects of delayed childbearing and recuperation at later ages are inspected. Based on both Bonggarts-Feeney's (1998) and Kohler-Philipov's (2001) methods, tempo effects caused by delayed childbearing are examined for Hong Kong and Taiwan since 1976. Recuperation effects are derived from a simple model developed in present paper. For cohort fertility, postponement and recuperation effects are examined too. And the fertilities of cohorts born in the 1950s-1960s are estimated. The analyses reveal that, as in Europe, postponement of childbearing played a great role in the emergence of low fertility in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The pattern of low fertility in Taiwan is similar as that of Europe. However, low fertility of Hong Kong is not a simple echo of that of Europe and it has new features. With very low tempo effects, TFR of Hong Kong declined further in the 1990s. Lowest-low level of CTFR for cohorts born in the middle 1960s and period adjusted TFR in late 1990s displayed that postponement of childbearing in Hong Kong is accompanied by true decline in complete fertility. Without effective pronatalist policy, Hong Kong may continue to face low fertility in a long time and Taiwan may follow the pattern of low fertility Hong Kong, facing true lowest-low fertility in some near future.