「學歷擠壓」困境：擇偶網站資料的分析

The Predicament of ＂Education Squeeze＂: An Analysis Using Online Dating Data

張榮富(Jung-Fu Chang) ； 蔡滋紋(Tzu-Wen Tsai)

《人文及社會科學集刊》 27卷1期 (2015/03) Pp. 205-263

摘要

本文以擇偶網站資料，運用學歷偏好雙向互選的模擬配對方式，估算高中職、大專與碩士學歷者的擇偶機會。結果顯示：（1）碩士女與高中職男雖有比同性別其他學歷者更寬的學歷偏好門檻但卻有較小的擇偶機會，陷入「學歷擠壓」的擇偶困境。（2）唯有當「異性的」學歷偏好放寬時此二群體的擇偶機會才會大幅提升，其擇偶機會並非操之在己。（3）短期內不易透過「碩士女嫁大專男」與「高中職男娶大專女」的婚配組合疏解此二群體的擇偶困境。本文推測「現在」適婚年齡層高學歷女性未婚比例的上升，「未來」將造成「不婚」（40或50歲未婚）的增加，非僅止於「晚婚」。

關鍵字

擇偶機會 ； 婚姻市場 ； 婚姻擠壓 ； 學歷配對 ； 婚姻斜坡

並列摘要

This study used data from an online dating site to examine the effects of educational mating preference on marriage opportunities using a two-side matching simulation approach. We found that higher-educated women and lowereducated men have the lowest marriage opportunities among all educational groups. This may be one of the important reasons why these two educational groups have the lowest marriage rate in their gender. Furthermore, through different types of simulation, we found that even setting wider educational thresholds would not lead higher-educated women's and lower-educated men's marriage opportunities to increase. Only when the opposite genders set lower ceiling-educational thresholds could their marriage opportunities increase. The key factor for increasing marriage opportunities is not in their own hands.

並列關鍵字

marriage opportunity ； marriage market ； marriage squeeze ； educational match ； marriage gradient

參考文獻

MSN 戀愛交友網站 2009 〈 擇偶學歷偏好資料〉。2009 年 10 月 1 日至 11 月 30 日，取自 http://www.tw.match.com(MSN-Match, 2009, “Data of Educational Preference of Mate Selection,” RetrievedOct. 1 to Nov. 30, 2009, from http://www.tw.match.com)

RecordJapan 網站 2012 〈 日本男性終身未婚率30年增長 8 倍〉。2013年9月30日，取自 http://www.recordjapan.net/news/28429(RecordJapan, 2012, “Japanese Men Non-marriage Rate Increase Eight Times in Past 30 Years,” Retrieved Sep. 30, 2013, from http://www.recordjapan.net/news/28429)

內政部 2009 〈 內政統計年報：婚姻狀況〉。2009 年 11 月 18 日，取自 http://sowf.moi.gov.tw/stat/year/list.htm(Ministry of the Interior, 2009, “Statistical Yearbook of Interior: Population by Marital Status,” Retrieved Nov. 18, 2009, from http://sowf.moi.gov.tw/stat/year/list.htm)

內政部 2009〈 內政統計年報：十五歲以上人口教育程度〉。2009年11月18日，取自http://sowf.moi.gov.tw/stat/year/list.htm(Ministry of the Interior, 2009, “Statistical Yearbook of Interior: Population of 15 Years and Over by Educational Attainment,” Retrieved Nov. 18, 2009, from http://sowf.moi.gov.tw/stat/year/list.htm)

內政部戶政司 2001 〈十五歲以上現住人口數按性別、年齡、婚姻狀況及教育程度分〉。2013 年 2 月， 購於內政部戶政司。(Department of Household Registration, Ministry of the Interior, 2001, “Population of 15 Years and Over by Gender, Age, Marital Status and Educational Attainment,”February, 2013, Bought from Department of Household Registration, Ministry of the Interior.)