北宜地區遷移行為之再檢視－以國道5號動工事件做例證

本文以國道5號高速公路或「雪山隧道」宣布動工事件為檢視對象，針對此觀測區域內多數產官學者認為將有大量人口會遷移至宜蘭，與形成V型遷徙行為之理由。本文以質性量化混合方法做檢析，首先援引當時國內外區域人口遷徙之經驗，為此型遷徙行為做先期概念模圖建置。依據此建置完竣的關係架構，接著採以配適的指數平滑公式，以反應動工宣告之後所產生的人類適應性預期行為；質言之，將針對已建置V型遷徙行為，做合宜的平滑調整程序。由本文檢析的結果發現，目前蘭陽地區的實際人口，未見先期所推演的強迴流人口數，雪隧效應的達成率僅約八成而已。顯然宜北地區的人口遷徙動向，與各區的人口流動經驗不符，此有「滯後」條件約制之L型區域人口成長型態，與北宜地區人流較有「壓力與協調」之長學習過程有關。

Keywords

V型人口遷移；事件評估；混合方法取向

Parallel abstracts

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the difference between the expected and realized migration flow after the Shea-San tunnel's opening on national highway 5. This paper firstly supplements the cross-region assessment of the domestic type V population movement with the related foreign relocation experiences. A precedent for the type V conceptual frameworks is reassessed as another mixed type U construct in embeddedness with the weighted data of net migration based on exponential smoothing estimation. Our quantitative and smoothing results afford the expected outcome of the type V move to improve the unmeasured state. Finally, the realized type L relocation behavior amended by the current data is offered to reexamine the above mixed-method approaches, aiming at reaction to the stress of contingent events and the move for sluggish adjustment.