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國土空間規劃回應氣候變遷之比較分析-以台南市為例

Comparative Analysis of Spatial Plans in Response to Climate Change - A Case Study of Tainan City

Abstracts


隨著氣候變遷的衝擊日益加劇,UNFCCC確立了「減緩」和「調適」兩大因應對策。而台灣面臨氣候變遷首當其衝,《國家氣候變遷調適政策綱領》和《國土計畫法》中都強調了對於氣候變遷議題和空間規劃的重視。隨著各縣市國土計畫草案陸續提出,本研究欲探討並比較各空間計畫於落實氣候變遷減緩與調適目標之表現。IPCC評估報告(2014)、土地特別報告(2019)、世界權威的學術期刊(Searchinger et al., 2018; Harper & Powell, 2018)皆提及了土地利用的變化於追求氣候變遷減緩與調適的重要性,土地利用與減緩的強烈關聯在許多研究中被提及,土地利用於調適的貢獻亦被各界所重視。故本研究欲藉由「土地利用變化」做為效益評估之載體,對現況、區域計畫、國土計畫進行比較分析,以檢視空間規劃在追求減緩、調適的效益和差異。基於文獻回顧強調「農業、林業和其他土地利用(AFOLU)」 對於回應氣候變遷之重要性,本研究著重探究農地、森林利用區位和總量的變化。首先藉由各空間計畫之土地使用指導與目標進行土地利用變化的模擬設定。接著選取適切的效益評估指標,以InVEST模型和ArcGIS計算各政策情境下農、林土地所產生之效益。量測結果以統計檢定來檢視各政策情境間效益差異的顯著性。最後對各政策情境效益及區位差異進行比較分析,並輔以路徑依賴和綜效權衡關係詮釋結果。本研究從土地利用與效益表現的變化關係,可以得知農林土地利用變化與減緩、調適效益具有正向關係。依據本研究情境模擬與假設,區域計畫和國土計畫的落實都相較於現況更有助於回應氣候變遷,其中區域計畫在森林土地利用變化較大的區位有較佳表現,國土計畫則於農業與建築土地利用變化較大的區位有較佳表現,兩者在不同區位的效益表現互有高低。

Parallel abstracts


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated the fact that human activities are the trigger for climate change, two major countermeasures had been proposed: "Mitigation" and "Adaptation". With the proposal of "National Land Plan", this study intends to explore and compare the performance of different spatial plans in implementing mitigation and adaptation. Based on many journals and literature mentioned the importance of "Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use" in pursuit of mitigation and adaptation. Therefore, this study focus on exploring the changes in AFOLU's location and total areas. First, set the land use change simulation through the guidance and goals of each spatial plan. Then, select appropriate evaluation indicators, calculate the benefits of each policy scenario by using InVEST model. At last, compare policy scenarios' differences, and comprehensive the results by "Path Dependence", "Synergies" and Trade-offs". As the results, from the relationship between land use coverage change and climate change, we can tell that Agricultural Land and Forestry Land have positive incidence with mitigation and adaptation. Based on the scenario simulations and assumptions of this study, "Regional Plan" is more beneficial in responding to climate change than "National Land Plan". The benefit performance of two spatial plans in different locations is mutually high and low.

Parallel keywords

Spatial Planning Land Use Climate Change InVEST Model

References


中央研究院(2019),「臺灣深度減碳政策建議書」,中央研究院報告,臺北市:中央研究院。
李柏均(2013),空間規劃因應氣候變遷之權衡取捨與綜效之研究-以臺北都會區為例,國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。
林憲德、林子平、蔡耀賢(2015),「綠建築評估手冊-基本型」,新北市:內政部建築研究所。
徐千偉(2014),我國政府因應氣候變遷的治理政策,「人文與社會科學簡訊」,第15 卷,第 2 期,第 25-32 頁。
國家發展委員會(2014),「國家氣候變遷調適行動計畫(102-106 年)」,臺北市:國家發展委員會。

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