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檢視臺灣縣市房價之區域空間異質性與外溢效果

Examining the Regional Heterogeneity and Spatial Spillover Effect of Housing Price in Taiwan

Abstracts


起始自1950年代,台灣房價快速上漲,尤以台北市、新北市所在之北部區域為甚。然而,從區域空間觀察,則可以發現,台灣的房價成長存在南北區域的空間差異。其差異或是因為與區域空間環境差異有關,也或是與區域居民對住宅需求的偏好差異有關。本研究以Meen(1999)所提出的投資決策模型結構,推導出可以區域住宅房價模型。該模型可以兼顧總體因素與地區性因素的影響。綜合考量不同縣市之間的空間異質性,以及鄰近縣市之間互相影響的空間相依性,探討影響縣市房價的因素,並論證縣市住宅市場之間的互動關聯。本研究以空間追蹤資料(spatial panel data)進行實證分析,彙整使用『都市及區域發展統計彙編』、『縣市統計資料庫』與『不動產資訊平台』等等公開資料,蒐集臺灣本島19個縣市自2002至2014年之資料進行實證研究。實證結果發現,影響臺灣整體縣市住宅市場的因素包括消費需求、投資需求、公共服務品質等地區性因素,以及利率之總體因素。但若以分區域觀察之,北部區域的投資需求顯著影響房價;而南部區域的消費需求對房價的影響效果最大。此外,各區域內縣市的住宅市場存在不同的關聯差異,北部區域的房價呈現正向外溢關聯效果;中部區域為負向的外溢效果;而南部區域則不存在空間的相依性。

Parallel abstracts


Following the economic booming in Taiwan since 1950's, the housing prices increase in a fast pace, especially in the capital city area such as Taipei and New Taipei areas in northern region of Taiwan. However, there is an immense difference of rising degree by regions from north to south. The heterogeneity of regional spatial development forms the differences of housing environment attributes and results in different housing price distribution for local regions. The price differences also related to the motivation difference from housing consumption to housing investment. In this study, we select municipality cities inside Taiwan's main island as the empirical areas to construct the so-called the Regional Housing Price Model (RHPM). The RHPM, which is modified from the investment decision model referred to Meen(1999), will be constructed empirically to explore the spatial heterogeneity and spatial spillover effects by taking into account of regional environment attributes and macro-economic factors. We investigate how national and regional elements impact on regional housing market by using spatial panel data model. Different from the previous studies, this paper considers simultaneously on the spatial heterogeneity and dependency. We found from the empirical study that the spatial spillover effect is positively correlated in the northern region, and negatively correlated in the central region, but insignificant in the southern region of Taiwan. It also shows that the three regions were in distinct stage of development, causing the characteristic of regional housing market to present differently.

References


Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial Econometrics From Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg Press. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-40340-8
Mayer, C. & Somerville, C. (2000). Residential construction: Using the urban growth model to estimate housing supply. Journal of Urban Economics, 48(1), 85-109. doi:10.1006/juec.1999.2158
Tsai, I. C. (2015). Spillover effect between the regional and the national housing markets in the UK. Regional Studies, 49(12), 1957-1976. doi:10.1080/00343404.2014.883599
李士杰(2009),臺灣地區鄉鎮市地價影響因素之探討-空間計量之應用,世新大學經濟學系碩士論文。
林祖嘉、林素菁(1993),台灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析,「住宅學報」,第 1 期,第 21-45 頁。

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